Articles and Reporting
A long and sobering post from former Ukrainian officer Tatarigami detailing longstanding deficiencies in Ukraine’s command and control structure and training pipeline that he believes are responsible for recent reverses in Kursk and Russian advances in Pokrovsk. In brief, he believes that some subordinates lie about their units’ status to avoid punishments (which are typically issued for lack of readiness), the incorrect deployment of both high and low quality units as well as poor handling of rotations, insufficient training for new units, and “a petrified Soviet hierarchy with Ukraine’s military leadership” that makes replacing incompetent senior commanders impossible.
As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces again executed and mutilated the body of a Ukrainian prisoner of war, this time near Pokrovsk. The summary execution and mutilation of POWs is a heinous violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Another 103 Ukrainian POWs were exchanged for an equal number of Russians.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as multiple attacks on several large ammunition depots, sparking the largest explosions of the war to date; see the Weekly Conclusion.
International
Billions in unspent American aid is reportedly set to expire in the coming weeks, with no certainty that the window for its spending will be extended, following continuous aid package delays and refusals from the Pentagon to send readily available equipment such as Bradleys, Abrams, or M113s.
The European Union announced it will vote to provide Ukraine with a $39 billion loan, part of an earlier G7 agreement to leverage seized Russian governmental assets. It is unclear when or even whether the United States will be able to contribute its share of the loan, as pro-Russia Hungary vetoed a US requirement that the EU not unfreeze the seized assets for at least three years.
The EU announced another $180 million aid package to repair Ukraine’s energy grid. Lithuania has begun dismantling an entire thermal power plant so it can be donated to Ukraine. Germany announced another $450 million aid package for Ukraine set to include armored vehicles, drones, munitions, and more. Norway announced it would provide another $475 million in civil aid to Ukraine (likely to support energy infrastructure), and increase both the size and length of future pledged support.
Regional Military Updates
Sumy Front
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian attacks southwest of Glushkovo made limited gains. Russian counterattacks south of Korenevo made significant gains. Ukrainian attacks northeast of Korenevo made marginal gains. Fighting reported north of Suudzha. Russian attacks southeast of Sudzha made marginal gains.
Assessment: Russian forces are continuing to counterattack in this region following an influx of reinforcements, pushing Ukraine further away from Korenevo and securing their hold on Glushkovsky Rain, a damaging reverse for Ukrainian forces on this front.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks north of Kharkiv made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterassaults in Vovchansk made marginal gains. Russian attacks east of Vovchansk made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Luhansk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported east of Kupyansk. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove made marginal gains. Russian attacks northwest of Kreminna made limited gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Russian attacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterattacks south of Siversk made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Chasiv Yar made limited gains. Russian forces captured Andriivka, south of Bakhmut. Russian assaults in Toretsk made limited gains. Fighting reported around Niu York. Russian attacks east of Pokrovsk made gains. Ukrainian counterattacks around Selydove, southeast of Pokrovsk, made limited gains. Russian forces captured Ukrainsk, southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian attacks west of Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Russian forces captured Heorhiivka, northwest of Marinka. Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks aorund Vuhledar made limited gains. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks southeast of Huliaipole made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Orikhiv.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
This week, long-range Ukrainian attack drones struck a massive munitions depot near Toropets as well as two smaller facilities, detonating tens of thousands of tons of explosives in what were likely the largest single explosions of the war. These are merely the latest entries in Ukraine’s rapidly expanding long-range strike campaign against targets inside Russia, which has the potential to be one of the most significant and impactful operations of the war.
Thus far, Ukraine has strike a variety of targets, each with their own benefits and goals:
Airbases, forcing Russia to deploy its fighter-bombers further away from the frontline, increasing their flight times and reducing their responsiveness.
Oil and gas facilities, damaging the Kremlin’s primary export industry and most important source of revenue.
Munitions depots, reducing Russia’s supply of ammunition and likely forcing it to store materiel further from the front across many smaller locations, reducing logistical efficiency.
Military-industrial facilities, degrading Russian production efforts (though these attacks are relatively rare).
Additionally, these strikes have served to advance two wider goals:
- Russia has been increasingly forced to spread out its large but finite air defense network, reducing its effectiveness in Ukraine while creating exploitable gaps inside Russia.
- Destructive and embarrassing attacks inside Russia have “brought the war home,” reducing the Kremlin’s ability to portray the conflict as a “foreign” endeavor that Russian citizens need not be concerned by or worried about.
This campaign has proven remarkably effective, both in terms of direct effects and relative to its comparatively low costs. In addition to (again) proving Western fears about Russian “red lines” mistaken, they have dealt billions of dollars in damage and even reportedly forced the Kremlin to consider negotiations that would halt strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities in return for similar promises.
Nevertheless, serious deficiencies remain. Due to the West’s refusal to provide suitable weapons, most of these attacks have been carried out by Ukrainian-made drones. Often built by hand, these munitions are few in number and often expensive, with some larger models reputed to cost as much as (far superior) Western cruise missiles. Smaller payloads also mean less damage, making larger targets effectively immune, while the sheer size of Russia and limited availability of drones severely constrain how many attacks can be made.
If expanded, this campaign has the potential to destroy Russian weapons before they can be used or even produced, cripple the Kremlin’s primary source of funding, and disrupt the Russian war effort as a whole, all while making the war a reality to everyday Russians. Hopefully, Western nations – most especially the United States – will move to either support Ukraine’s domestic drone production lines or supply it with the weapons it needs to make Toropets a regular occurrence.
