Articles and Reporting
Another great video from Australian military analyst Perun discussing the state of Russia’s economy and how it has handled the shock of the war and Western sanctions thus far.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russia is expanding its use of tear gas and other chemical weapons. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Another 49 Ukrainian prisoners, including some Azovstal defenders, were returned in exchange for an equal number of Russians.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities.
The Kremlin ordered six British diplomats to leave the country, accusing them of spying on Russia.
International
Russian missiles struck a civilian ship carrying Ukrainian grain near Romania, the first such attack of the war.
Two Russian drones violated NATO airspace, with one flying over Romania and another crashing into Latvia.
Western nations instituted additional sanctions on Iran following confirmation that it had provided Russia with at least 200 ballistic missiles.
Following months of requests from Ukraine and various NATO Allies, the Biden Administration indicated it may finally lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia.
Sweden announced another $450 million aid package for Ukraine, including munitions and groundwork for the potential transfer of Gripen fighter aircraft.
Regional Military Updates
Sumy Front
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian attacks around Tetkino made limited gains. Ukrainian attacks south of Glushkovo made limited gains. Ukrainian attacks east of Glushkovo made marginal gains. Russian forces likely recaptured Krasnooktyabrskoe, Vishnevka, and Snagost, south of Korenevo. Ukrainian counterattacks east of Korenevo made marginal gains. Fighting reported north of Sudzha. Russian counterattacks southeast of Sudzha made marginal gains.
Assessment: The situation along the Sumy Front is deteriorating. Russian counterattacks around Korenevo succeeded in forcing Ukrainian troops back from the city and likely securing a land route into Glushkovsky Raion.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported north of Kharkiv. Fighting reported around Vovchansk.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Luhansk Front
🟧 Significant action. Russian forces captured Synkivka, northeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks around Kupyansk made gains. Russian assaults on Makiivka, southwest of Svatove, made gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Assessment: The situation along the Luhansk Front is deteriorating. Russian forces continue to make accelerated gains along this front and appear poised to fully recapture the salient east of Kupyansk on the left bank of the Oskil River.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Siversk. Russian attacks north of Chasiv Yar made limited gains. Russian attacks southeast of Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian assaults on Toretsk made limited gains. Ukrainian counterassaults in Niu York marginal gains. Russian attacks east of Pokrovsk made marginal gains. Russian forces captured Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Lisivka, and Ukrainsk, southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian forces captured Krasnohorivka. Fighting reported around Marinka. Fighting reported around Kostyantynivka.
Assessment: The situation along the Donetsk Front is poor. Russian forces are continuing to make marginal gains around Bakhmut, while gains around Pokrovsk have slowed but are continuing, with the last remnants of Krasnohorivka to the southeast finally falling.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Russian forces captured Vodyane, northeast of Vuhledar. Russian attacks around Vuhledar made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Orikhiv.
Assessment: Russian forces have increased their attacks around Vuheldar and have begun making gains around the settlement. Elsewhere, the situation along the Zaporizhzhia Front is static.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
No report or assessment this week.
