Articles and Reporting
Another excellent video from Australian military analyst Perun detailing the present state of the Kursk Offensive as well as Ukraine’s strike campaign against Russian oil, gas, industrial, and military infrastructure.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces launched one of their largest missile barrages of the war, killing dozens and wounding hundreds across several cities over the course of the week, including strikes on residential buildings, hotels, and other civilian objects. The intentional targeting of civilians is a violation of the laws of war.
Russia was the only United Nations Security Council member not to attend a meeting celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions’ signing, calling the event a “waste of time.”
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Ukraine lost its first F-16 aircraft during an air defense mission in the midst of one of the largest Russian missile attacks of the war. While it is unclear exactly what happened, there are some indications it was a friendly fire incident or a crash (either through pilot error or mechanical issues).
115 Ukrainian prisoners returned home in exchange for an equal number of Russians in the latest POW swap.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as airbases and other military installations.
International
Belarus stationed large numbers of troops along its border with Ukraine, claiming it was for exercises. Belarus is exceedingly unlikely to join the war, and likely just hopes that Ukraine will keep troops in the north out of caution that it might otherwise deploy in Kursk or the Donbas.
The United States once more expanded sanctions against Russian individuals and businesses responsible for directing and supplying the Russian war industry. Additionally, many Chinese and other third-party banks are reportedly moving to cut business ties with Russia due to increased sanctions scrutiny.
Belarus stationed large numbers of troops on Ukraine’s northern border under the pretext of exercises, likely hoping to distract Ukraine from Kursk and Pokrovsk. Ukraine issued a warning in response, and Belarus remains exceedingly unlikely to join the war.
Regional Military Updates
Sumy Front
🟧 Significant action. Russian forces likely recaptured eastern Korenevo. Fighting reported around Korenevo. Ukrainian forces made marginal gains around Sudzha. Russian forces likely recaptured Ulanok, southeast of Sudzha. Fighting reported along the international border west of Belgorod.
Assessment: See Weekly Conclusion.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks north of Kharkiv made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Vovchansk.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Luhansk Front
🟧 Significant action. Russian assaults in Synkivka, northeast of Kupyansk, made gains. Russian forces made gains southwest of Kupyansk. Russian forces captured Stelmakhivka, northwest of Svatove. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: Russian forces have accelerated their rate of attack along this front and have begun making some notable gains as they push towards the Oskil River to the west, with the potential to divide Ukraine’s holdings on the eastern bank and/or push them back onto the western bank in the medium-term.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Siversk. Russian attacks around Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian attacks around Toretsk made gains. Russian assaults on Toretsk made limited gains. Russian assaults on Niu York made gains. Russian attacks east of Pokrovsk made marginal gains. Russian forces captured Novohrodivka, Memryk, Kalynove, and Karlivka, southeast of Pokrovsk. Fighting reported around Krasnohorivka. Russian attacks round Marinka made marginal gains. Russian forces likely captured Kostyantynivka, immediately west of Novomykhailivka.
Assessment: The situation around Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are making rapid gains as Ukrainian defenders have abandoned some positions, including the entire Avdiivka-sized town of Novohrodivka, which was seized by the Russians in a matter of days and almost without a fight. Russian forces are likely to reach Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad in a matter of weeks, and the situation is rapidly worsening. Elsewhere, this front is largely stagnant.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Vuhledar. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Orikhiv.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Note: This Week’s Conclusion is a brief assessment of the Kursk Offensive as it currently stands.
Following two weeks of explosive gains, Ukrainian forces in Kursk are now on the defensive. Isolated Glushkovsky Raion aside, significant changes on the ground are now unlikely in the near-term, with the frontlines having rapidly achieved something of a steady-state as many analysts (including myself) predicted at the outset. With that said, it is worth very briefly analyzing the effects of the offensive so far.
On the Russian side, the effects of the Kursk incursion have been largely muted. While some Russians have expressed frustration or disillusionment, they remain the minority, and Ukraine’s advance does not threaten any major urban, industrial, or military areas. The Kremlin continues to respond mostly by constructing defenses around Kurchatov to the north and redeploying troops from other areas of the front, mostly lower-quality units, but also increasingly including some “elite” assets.
Crucially, however, Russia has *not* drawn any forces away from its offensive in Pokrovsk. The concerns that many analysts (including myself) expressed at the outset of this invasion have largely borne out: Ukraine’s attack has coincided with a period of reinforced Russian gains around the vital Donetsk logistics hub, with Ukraine lacking the reserves needed to counterattack and stabilize the line. The situation there is now desperate.
As yet, it is difficult to say whether or not the Kursk Offensive has been worthwhile. However, if Pokrovsk falls, Kursk will almost certainly be deemed a strategic failure – one for which Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi (and the man who appointed him, President Zelenskyy) will likely be blamed. Fair or not, in the next several months, it will be very easy for many within and without Ukraine to imagine a counterfactual where Zaluzhnyi retains his post as CinC and the situation remains rosy. If that is the case, it is difficult to imagine the already unpopular Syrskyi retaining his post.
