Articles and Reporting
A good overview of the progress of the Kursk Offensive so far (dated by about a week) from Australian military analyst Perun.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Ukraine struck one of the few large ferries that runs between Russia and occupied Crimea while it was carrying fuel, destroying the ship.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as military facilities. In particular, several airbases inside Russia have been hit in recent weeks by large Ukrainian long-range drone attacks, destroying multiple munitions depots and likely multiple aircraft.
Russia appears to be attempting to suppress discontent over the use of conscripts in Kursk Oblast, where Russian forces have suffered several high-profile losses and mass surrenders.
International
President Zelenskyy once again called on the United States to lift restrictions that have prevented Ukraine from using any long-range Western-provided weapons – even those provided by countries such as Britain and France – against targets on Russian soil.
Indian Prime Minister Modi made a visit to Kyiv, the first such visit in the country’s history, where Modi stated his support for maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders – a more positive sentiment than has previously been expressed.
A Ukrainian-Russian meeting in Qatar intended to begin negotiations for an end to Russian strikes on Ukrainian civil infrastructure (in return for a halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities) was reportedly called off over the Kursk Offensive. Given past Russian behavior, it is far from guaranteed this meeting would have resulted in serious negotiations.
The United States released another $125 million aid package for Ukraine, including various munitions, spare parts, and some light vehicles.
Germany announced it would drastically reduce its planned aid for Ukraine in order to balance its budget, an absurd proposal reversing previous German pledges.
Regional Military Updates
Sumy Front
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian forces likely captured Troitske, Byakhovo, Apanasovka, and Krasnooktyabrskoe, southwest of Korenevo. Ukrainian assaults on Korenevo made limited gains. Ukrainian forces likely captured Vetreno and Durovka, east of Korenevo. Ukrainian attacks north of Malaya Loknya made gains. Ukrainian forces likely captured Ulanok, southeast of Sudzha.
Assessment: Ukrainian forces continue to advance, and still look poised to take Korenevo and Glushkovsky Raion in the coming weeks, though they are now moving at a slower pace and have reportedly begun to dig in at some locations. Total gains now exceed 800 square kilometers at minimum, and over 1,200 at maximum. A fuller assessment will likely come next week.
Note: A few villages previously listed as “captured” were not confirmed gains, and are now discounted; apologies for the error.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kharkiv. Fighting reported around Vovchansk.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Luhansk Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian attacks west of Svatove made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Makiivka made limited gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Russian assaults on Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Russian attacks around Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian assaults around Toretsk made gains. Russian assaults in Niu York made gains. Russian attacks east of Pokrovsk made gains. Russian forces captured Novozhelanne, Zavitne, and Ptyche, southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian attacks around Marinka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: The situation around Siversk is largely stagnant. The situation around Chasiv Yar is largely stagnant. Russian forces advanced into Toretsk, and effectively seized all of the outlying settlements to its east. Russian forces continue to advance around Pokrovsk as some Ukrainian units have withdrawn, with the Kremlin currently prioritizing this area above all others (Kursk included). The situation around Marinka is largely stagnant.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks around Vuhledar made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks east of Mala Tokmachka made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Orikhiv.
Assessment: Greatly reduced fighting along this front appears to corroborate other reports indicating that Russia has transferred units from the Zaporizhzhia Front to Kursk.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
No report or assessment this week.
