Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces posted photos showing a Ukrainian prisoner of war being killed and dismembered. The summary execution of POWs and desecration of their corpses is a heinous violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Ukrainian forces reportedly again struck the Russian *Rostov-on-Don* Kilo-class submarine in Sevastopol, which was heavily damaged in drydock some months ago.
Ukraine partially defaulted on its national debt. The Ukrainian government is currently funded in large part by Western loans and grants, which are keeping the economy afloat.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as repeatedly striking Russian airbases (most especially their munitions depots).
Russia called on countries to condemn Ukraine for its invasion of Russian territory and violation of borders and sovereignty. To quote an American State Department spokesman, “It is a little bit rich, them calling it a provocation.” Several Western nations, including the United States and oft-cautious Germany, publicly indicated their support for Ukraine’s invasion.
International
The United States announced another $125 million aid package for Ukraine, including various munitions, some light vehicles, and radars.
Regional Military Updates
Note: This section is once again being reorganized. I am returning it to a fronts-based system, having judged the previous “theatres-only” system unhelpful and overly restrictive. Each front is named for the Ukrainian oblast nearest to the fighting. It may be further reconfigured going forward.
Sumy Front
🟥 Major action. Ukrainian forces captured over 400 square kilometers of Russian territory, including the western half of the regional town of Sudzha and over a dozen surrounding villages, though the precise extent of these gains remains unclear.
Assessment: See Weekly Conclusion.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported north of Kharkiv. Fighting reported around Vovchansk.
Assessment: The situation along the Kharkiv Front remains largely static.
Luhansk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported east of Kupyansk. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian assaults on Makiivka made gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: The situation along the Luhansk Front remains largely static.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks around Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Russian forces captured Rozdolivka. Russian attacks around Rozdolivka made limited gains. Russian attacks around Chasiv Yar made limited gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian attacks towards Toretsk made gains. Russian assaults in Niu York made gains. Russian forces likely captured Vesele, east of Pokrovsk. Fighting reported southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka, immediately northwest of Novomykhailivka, made gains.
Assessment: Russian forces have resumed making limited gains along most of this front, and are nearing central Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban area (which I will generally refer to as “Pokrovsk”).
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Vuhledar. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Orikhiv.
Assessment: The situation along the Zaporizhzhia Front remains largely static.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Note: This week’s Conclusion is a brief Q&A overview of the Ukrainian Kursk Offensive, which was launched on August 6th and has seen Ukrainian forces make some gains into Russian territory inside Kursk Oblast, near the Ukrainian city of Sumy.
What preceded the Kursk Offensive?
Russia previously launched an offensive over the international border towards Kharkiv which was quickly stopped by defending Ukrainian forces. It was the major first cross-border attack (as opposed to periodic raids conducted by both sides) since the early stages of the conflict, breaking something of a taboo. In recent weeks, Russian forces have also been making gains along the Donetsk Front, causing some worry and consternation among analysts.
What forces are involved?
The precise number of units involved is unclear, but is substantial on both sides. At minimum, Ukrainian forces include elements from multiple brigades, mostly experienced units previously held in reserve. Russian forces consist chiefly of low-quality border security units and formations laden with conscripts who cannot be legally deployed to Ukraine. More Russian units are reportedly en route, though of what quality and from which fronts is unclear.
What progress has been made?
More than initially anticipated. Ukraine achieved total surprise, allowing it to rapidly seize a significant (though not huge) chunk of territory centered around the regional city of Sudzha, of which they control at least the western half. Additionally, they have taken relatively large numbers of POWs, who can be traded for captured Ukrainians. The precise scale of these gains is hard to establish. It may expand in the coming days, and will almost certainly shrink somewhat thereafter as Russian forces reinforce, respond, and counterattack.
What are the objectives?
We do not know. Most likely, Ukraine hopes to: 1) respond to Russia’s Kharkiv Offensive; 2) seize some Russian territory, both to embarrass Putin and to allow for a stronger hand in any negotiations; 3) draw Russian troops away from the Donetsk Front, where most of the fighting is currently taking place; and 4) force the Kremlin to permanently station more units along the border, sapping its reserves. While 1 and 2 seem achievable, 3 and 4 are less certain.
What are the risks?
They are numerous. While the situation is broadly improving on both counts, Ukraine is still suffering from sharp shortages in manpower and materiel. This operation is consuming significant resources and some of its best remaining reserve units, preventing them from being used to blunt Russian advances in the Donbas. This operation is a gamble, with most analysts (including myself) expressing strong doubts as to its worth.
What happens next?
Lots of fighting. Judging by the progress of the war so far, it is highly likely that this intense burst of maneuver warfare will rapidly end as both sides consolidate along new defensive lines. Russia may be able to deploy enough forces to push the Ukrainians back across the border, but that would be an anomaly given events to date; more likely, the lines will stabilize and then remain static.
