Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as airfields and other military sites.
International
The United States Department of Defense estimated that it had overvalued old surplus items sent to Ukraine by approximately $2 billion, allowing that same value in new items to be provided.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks north of Kharkiv made marginal gains. Russian attacks west of Vovchansk made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Vovchansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian forces captured Pishchane, southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian attacks west of Svatove made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Russian attacks north of Soledar made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Chasiv Yar. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian attacks towards Toretsk made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Niu York made marginal gains. Fighting reported northeast of Ocheretyne. Russian forces likely captured Lozuvatske, northwest of Ocheretyne. Russian attacks west of Ocheretyne made gains. Russian assaults on Novoselivka Pershe, southwest of Ocheretyne, made significant gains. Russian forces captured Yasnobrodivka, west of Avdiivka. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian attacks around Marinka made marginal gains. Russian attacks west of Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: The situation around Siversk is largely stagnant. The situation around Chasiv Yar is stagnant. The situation around Toretsk is stagnant. Russian forces have intensified gains northwest and west of Avdiivka, and are strengthening their push towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting around Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka has intensified.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks around Orikhiv made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky. Fighting reported around Kozachi Laheri. Fighting reported around Hola Prystan.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Note: This Week’s conclusion is a pair of animated maps showing the course of the war over the past five months, as well as a brief analysis of the course of the war over 2024 thus far.
Since late 2023, Russian forces have been attempting to capitalize on the relative scarcity of Western aid to Ukraine, launching several large offensives aimed at taking key strategic towns in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. As the below map illustrates, this effort has largely failed, with the only major Russian victory being at the former fortress-city of Avdiivka and its environs, while efforts around Kharkiv, Svatove, and Bakhmut have stalled.
A full map of Ukraine emphasizes the scale of this failure. The Kremlin’s stated goal remains the conquest or subjugation of the whole of Ukraine; at minimum, it might accept the full occupation of the four oblasts (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and a sliver of Mykolaiv) it annexed in late 2022. Despite two-and-a-half years of fighting, the Kremlin remains far from achieving either of these goals.
Despite disruptions to Ukrainian supply lines and persistent manpower shortages, Russian casualties and vehicle losses over the past several months have been immense. The current rate of attrition cannot be forever maintained. Some Soviet stockpiles have reportedly already been exhausted, with several other vital ones projected to run dry in 2025. Most analysts agree that Russia’s window of greatest opportunity has already passed, and that its capacity to make further gains is likely to shrink as 2024 progresses. Without extensive mobilization, reorganization, and restoration efforts, Russian forces are unlikely to be capable of achieving even the Kremlin’s minimum territorial goals in this decade.
