Articles and Reporting
The Institute for the Study of War included a good analysis of Putin’s maximalist war aims (including the eradication of Ukraine as a state and people) in its daily release, reiterating that the West should greatly expand its efforts to aid Ukraine as continued hesitance and half-measures will only embolden the Kremlin.
“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2024,” retrieved from the Institute for the Study of War.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces intensified attacks on cities across Ukraine, striking residential areas in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and more. The intentional targeting of civilians is a violation of the laws of war.
Russian forces are reportedly continuing to use drone-dropped tear gas grenades in some areas of the front. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Ukraine claims to have foiled another Russian coup attempt, aimed at fomenting a riot in the capital that would result in the taking of the legislature building. It seems unlikely this would have succeeded, but Russia has been stepping up subversive activities in Ukraine and Europe in recent months.
Russian forces launched cross-border raids into Chernihiv, Sumy, and northwestern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities.
International
The United States announced another $2.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, including $150 million of anti-air, anti-tank, and artillery munitions, with the remainder coming in the form of weapon purchases for later delivery.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks north of Kharkiv made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Vovchansk made limited gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks southeast of Kupyansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Fighting reported northwest of Kreminna. Ukrainian counterattacks west of Kreminna made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Kreminna made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Russian assaults on eastern Chasiv Yar made limited gains. Ukrainian counterattacks south of Bakhmut made marginal gains. Russian attacks towards Toretsk, northwest of Horlivka, made significant gains. Russian forces captured Shumy, east of Toretsk. Russian attacks on Niu York, west of Horlivka, made significant gains. Russian forces captured Sokil, northwest of Avdiivka. Fighting reported west of Avdiivka. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made limited gains. Russian attacks northwest of Marinka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: Russian forces finally captured the far eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar after months of fighting, far later than anticipated. Russian forces made significant and surprising gains around Horlivka, the last section of the pre-invasion frontline that had remained unaltered, likely due to Ukrainian unit rotations. The situation around Avdiivka remains largely static.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Orikhiv.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky. Fighting reported around Oleshky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
No report or assessment this week.
