Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov and former Minister of Defense Shoigu for ordering attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. The intentional targeting of non-military civilian infrastructure is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations, leading to rolling blackouts and severe power constraints across the country.
Ukrainian Major Kortevych – commander of the Azov Brigade – released an open letter accusing an unnamed senior commander (widely agreed to be Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sodol) of killing “more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general.” In apparent response, Sodol was quickly dismissed by President Zelenskyy and replaced by Brigadier General Hnatov, who accompanied the President on a surprise trip to the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as an air defense training center and other military sites.
Russia once again falsely claimed Ukrainian involvement in an Islamic State terror attack that killed 20 people in the Caucasus.
International
North Korea supposedly promised to send a small engineering force to assist Russia in Ukraine, though this has not been evidenced.
Longtime Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was named as the next Secretary-General of NATO, replacing former Norwegian Prime Minister Stoltenberg.
The European Union approved the start of negotiations intended to lead to the entrance of Ukraine and Moldova into the bloc.
Lithuania, Estonia, and the EU signed additional security agreements with Ukraine pledging long term future support, including over $50 billion from the EU and 0.25% of the small Baltic states’ GDP.
Pro-Russia Serbia reportedly sold significant sums of munitions to the West which were then supplied to Ukraine. The Netherlands announced it was working with another country to deliver an additional Patriot system to Ukraine, while the US is reportedly in talks with Israel to buy as many as eight batteries of older Patriots cujrrently being replaced. The EU disbursed the first $1.5 billion grant made up of frozen Russian assets (separate from the $50 billion loan program). Denmark announced a $170 million aid package. Spain announced it had provided additional munitions, Leopard tanks, and other items to Ukraine.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported north of Kharkiv. Ukrainian counterassaults in Starytsya made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterassualts in Vovchansk made gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian attacks southwest of Svatove made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterattacks west of Kreminna made gains.
Assessment: The Russian offensive north of Kharkiv has stalled, with Ukrainian forces now counterattacking with some success. Russian attacks along the Svatove Front have stalled.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks on eastern Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Russian attacks on Rozdolivka, north of Soledar, made marginal gains. Russian attacks on eastern Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian forces captured Shumy, northwest of Horlivka. Russian attacks west of Horlivka made gains. Russian attacks around Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian attacks southwest of Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: Russian advances in this theatre have largely stalled, with only marginal advances made around Bakhmut and Avdiivka despite weeks of fighting.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Mala Tokmachka. Russian attacks around Robotyne made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Orikhiv.
Assessment: The situation around Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka is largely static.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky. Fighting reported around Oleshky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Russia’s offensive efforts in the Northern and Eastern Theatres – including the reinvasion of Kharkiv Oblast – are now almost wholly stalled, having achieved little to no progress since the limited gains achieved around fallen Avdiivka in March and April.
This stall has come despite Western and Ukrainian officials recently warning that it will still be some time before recently provided Western aid begins to arrive at the front in substantial quantities. It is likely that the promise of Western supply – as well as the arrival of small initial quantities – stiffened Ukrainian resolve and allowed a more generous usage of limited stockpiles, probably helped by an expansion of conscription, blunting Russian momentum.
Russia launched its early offensive effort in the hope that it might achieve substantial gains while Ukrainian manpower was low and Western nations (most especially the United States) fretted over expanding deliveries. That window of opportunity is now at an end. Ukraine’s passage of its recent conscription expansion, Western efforts to find funding, and America’s passage of a large Ukraine aid bill has alleviated much of the strain the country was set to face through 2024.
For Russia, this is a serious setback. Much was gambled on the recent offensive efforts, and Russia’s “endless” stockpiles of Soviet munitions and vehicles are growing slim; some types of vehicles previously stored in the hundreds and thousands are already nearly extinct. All of Russia’s best units have been gutted, with Wagner now disbanded and the VDV no longer readily distinguishable from regular Russian units.
With the removal of former Defense Minister Shoigu and rise of his technocratic economist replacement Belousov, there is every indication that the Kremlin is aware of the deficiencies it faces, and it may yet manage to reverse the current trajectory. This is not an idle possibility, particularly if Iran, China, and North Korea continue to increase their support for the Russian war effort.
Victory is thus far from assured, with the safety of Ukraine and the West now potentially hinging on the results of the upcoming American presidential election and other European elections, including France’s ongoing far-right surge. Still, the situation on the ground is more hopeful now than it has been in some time, and if the current pace continues, Russia may already have reached the apex of its offensive potential for 2024.
