![Week 121 - Image 7 (NYT) [Kharkiv]](https://ukrainewarupdates.com/wp-content/uploads/Week-121-Image-7-NYT-Kharkiv.png)
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian occupation authorities claimed Ukrainian rocket strikes killed over two dozen civilians in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts, though this was not confirmed by independent sources. The intentional targeting of civilians would be a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations. Repeated strikes on Ukrainian civil infrastructure are forcing rolling blackouts and other power conservation measures, and have severely constrained civilian thermal and electrical generation.
Ukrainian forces appear to be pursuing a dedicated strike campaign against Russian air defense assets, likely as part of an effort to contest Russian air superiority ahead of the first deliveries of F-16 aircraft.
Russian forces conducted a limited incursion into Sumy Oblast, northwest of Kharkiv Oblast, but were quickly repulsed.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities.
Another expansion of American financial sanctions hit several large Russian banks and defense firms and forced Russia to halt all dollar and Euro-denominated trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
An expansion of American financial sanctions forced Russia to halt all dollar and Euro-denominated trading activity on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Additionally, in a blow to Russian prestige, a Ukrainian drone strike appears to have damaged at least one (possibly two) of Russia’s extremely rare Su-57 stealth fighters.
International
President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida both signed security agreements with Ukraine, the former apologizing for delays in American aid and promising to support Ukraine until the end of the war. Other Western leaders reiterated their own support, including French President Macron, who decried “We know this camp of pacifists. It is the one of capitulators. It is the spirit of defeat. We are not like this.”
Western countries led by the United States announced a plan to finance a $50 billion loan for Ukraine using nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian governmental assets. Details on disbursement and spending will be worked out later this year. Though more complicated and less impactful than simply seizing the assets, this is an enormously welcome development.
The United States announced it would provide another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, worth roughly $1 billion. Britain announced another $310 million in aid for Ukraine, focused on humanitarian and energy needs. The Netherlands announced European countries would send nearly $400 million worth of 152mm shells for Ukraine’s Soviet-era artillery. Estonia announced the provision of more air defense munitions.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian forces captured Hlyboke, west of Lyptsi. Fighting reported around Lyptsi. Ukrainian counterattacks around Hlyboke made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Vovchansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Vovchansk. Russian forces captured Ivanivska, east of Kupyansk. Russian attacks made gains southeast of Kupyansk made limited gains. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Russian attacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Russian attacks north of Soledar made limited gains. Russian attacks towards Chasiv Yar made limited gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian forces captured Novooleksandrivka, northwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces captured Novopokrovske, northwest of Avdiivka. Russian attacks west of Avdiivka made gains. Russian assaults on Nevelske, southwest of Pervomaiske, made gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Russian forces captured Heorhiivka. Russian assaults on Maksymilyanivka made gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian forces captured Staromaiorske. Russian assaults on Urozhaine made gains. Fighting reported southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne. Fighting reported northwest of Robotyne. Fighting reported southwest of Orikhiv.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Russian dictator Putin once again claimed he was ready to accept a ceasefire with Ukraine, a deal that would lead to negotiations that would end the war and bring peace. His requests are simple: that Ukraine withdraw all of its soldiers from the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, and abandon forever its hopes of joining NATO.
As with all previous Russian “offers,” this deal is not a deal, and its peace is not peace. To accept it would be to accept a victory that Russia has not won, to set the stage for another war in five to ten years whose starting line is that much further in Russia’s favor, to subject more Ukrainians to the miseries of occupation, to sign the death warrants of thousands living there who will resist with arms and voice until they too are shot, poisoned, or disappeared.
Ukraine, unsurprisingly, rejected this offer out of hand, as well it should. But the Kremlin’s goal was not acceptance. Rather, it remains the same as it always has: to use the word “peace” in place of “capitulation,” that its demands might be made that much more palatable to cowards, traitors, and fools living safe in Western capitals, more concerned with the price of gas than the fate of millions.
Putin is not interested in peace – nor, until he is defeated, should we be.
