Articles and Reporting
A good look at Russia’s new Kharkiv offensive and Putin’s purge of senior Ministry of Defense and military officials from Australian military analyst Perun.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian terror bombing attacks continue to fall on Ukrainian cities, including a strike on a Kharkiv hardware store that killed 19 civilians and wounded dozens of others. The intentional targeting of civilians and non-military civil infrastructure is a violation of the laws of war.
Multiple Ukrainian prisoners of war, released as part of the first prisoner swap in months, once again reported suffering torture while in captivity. The mistreatment of POWs is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities. In addition, Ukrainian drones targeted (but likely did not damage) another Voronezh-DM nuclear missile detection radar in Orenburg Oblast, southern Russia.
The Kremlin announced that it will replace Russia’s current flat income tax with a moderately progressive system, raising rates on the wealthy and corporations in order to help pay for the Russian war effort.
Russian forces are now visually confirmed to have lost over 16,000 vehicles in Ukraine, including around 10 warships, over 250 aircraft, around 1,500 artillery pieces, over 3,000 tanks, and over 6,000 other armored vehicles.
International
finally allowing Ukraine to strike targets on Russian soil using Western weapons, though only around Kharkiv and not with ATACMS.
Western officials indicated that direct Chinese support for Russia is growing, with a substantial concerted effort being made to supply Russia with badly-needed military industrial materials.
Ukraine signed several more long-term bilateral security deals, with each nation promising to provide substantial aid over the next year, including Portugal ($140 million), Spain ($1 billion), Belgium ($1 billion), Iceland ($30 million), and Norway ($1.2 billion). A deal was also signed with Sweden, who announced another $1.3 billion aid package including anti-air missiles, APCs, artillery shells, and – in a surprise move – two ASC 890 radar aircraft to be paired with F-16s. Germany announced another $500 million aid package including artillery barrels, drones, and multiple IRIS-T air defense systems. Poland announced it was preparing a $4.3 billion aid package.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian assaults on Hlyboke made gains. Ukrainian counterattacks around Lyptsi made limited gains. Russian assaults on Starystya made gains. Russian assaults in Vovchansk made limited gains. Ukrainian counterassaults in Vovchansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Russian assaults on Ivanivka, northwest of Svatove, made gains. Russian attacks on Myasozharivka, west of Svatove, made gains. Russian attacks southwest of Svatove made marginal gains. Russian attacks west of Kreminna made gains.
Assessment: The Russian offensive north of Kharkiv has stalled, with local Ukrainian forces beginning to make limited counterattacks. Russian attacks along the Svatove Front have increased and begun to make noticeable gains, possibly due to Ukrainian units being drawn towards Kharkiv (as Russia intended).
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Russian attacks northeast of Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian assaults on eastern Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made gains. Russian forces captured Netalyove, west of Avdiivka. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian attacks west of Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian assaults in Staromaiorske, made gains. Fighting reported around Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne. Fighting reported southwest of Orikhiv.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky. Russian attacks southwest of Krynky made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
No report or assessment this week.
