Articles and Reporting
Another excellent video from Australian military analyst Perun detailing the adoption of various Russian and Ukrainian makeshift vehicles that have proliferated since the start of the war.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Ukraine
Pieces of news that are worth relating go here.Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations. Ukrainian interception rates on these attacks have reportedly decreased substantially in recent months due toe decreased air defense munitions, increased strike sizes, and added strike complexity.
Ukrainian forces launched another successful ATACMS strike on a Russian airbase in occupied Crimea, damaging fuel storage facilities and destroying several fighter aircraft.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as other military industry targets.
International
Reports indicated that Ukraine expects to receive delivery of its first F-16 aircraft by the middle of the year following months of additional delays.
The United States announced it would provide another $2 billion in aid, though precisely when and including what was unspecified.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian forces captured Hlyboke. Russian forces captured Lukyantsi. Russian forces captured Buhruvatka. Russian forces captured Ohirtseve. Russian forces captured Hatyshche. Russian assaults on northern Vovchansk made gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove made limited gains. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: Russian forces have significantly increased attacks across the Northern Theatre and are continuing to make minor gains northeast of Kharkiv, but have not yet achieved (and appear unlikely to achieve) a significant breakthrough; however, they have successfully drawn Ukrainian units away from other regions of the front.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Ukrainian counterattacks northeast of Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made gains. Russian attacks west of Avdiivka made gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made limited gains. Fighting reported northwest of Marinka. Russian attacks southwest of Marinka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Novomykhailivka.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported south of Vuhledar. Russian assaults in Urozhaine made marginal gains. Russian attacks southeast of Mala Tokmachka made marginal gains. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian assaults in Krynky made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
In a surprise move, Russian dictator Putin announced the dismissal of long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, likely for reasons of excessive corruption and gross incompetence.
Replacing him is dark horse candidate Andrei Belousov, an economist and former Deputy Prime Minister who is known for his support of government economic intervention and who is generally perceived as being efficient, effective, and relatively incorrupt. His early statements, as well as the resignation and arrest of several Shoigu allies and demotion of other figures, seems to indicate that Putin is making a serious push to correct the many deep issues – most especially endemic corruption – that have plagued the Russian military and defense industry and hobbled Russia’s war effort. Should Belousov retain Putin’s backing, Russia may have a shot at reforming and reconstituting its dysfunctional military apparatus.
Still, Belousov’s elevation is not the only story. Shoigu was dismissed as Minister, but he was not exiled, and he now heads Russia’s influential Security Council. Former Security Council head and Putin confidante Patrushev was also demoted, but is still a presidential aide. Chief of the General Staff and Supreme Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine General Gerasimov still holds both of his titles, at least for the time being. These three men were reportedly instrumental in convincing Putin to invade Ukraine and have largely overseen the Russian war effort to date. Despite setbacks, they remain in positions of great power, and, at least on the surface, still have Putin’s ear, if not his confidence. Their ability to stymie reforms and protect corrupt allies may remain substantial.
Regardless of the outcome of these changes, any economic, bureaucratic, military, or industrial reforms that Belousov pursues will – at minimum – take months to bear fruit, and he will likely remain constrained by the generally glacial pace of Russian administration and widespread corruption. Precisely what Putin hopes to achieve with Belousov’s elevation, and how far he will go in supporting his new Defense Minister, is unclear – and, given the opaque nature of Russian politics, will likely remain as such for some time.
