Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces continue to launch attacks on power and thermal plants across Ukraine, causing blackouts and power restrictions across much of Ukraine. The intentional targeting of civilians and non-military civil infrastructure is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
Two colonels of the SBU internal security service were arrested for planning to assassinate President Zelenskyy, GUR intelligence agency head Lieutenant General Budanov, and SBU head Lieutenant General Malyuk.
Former Commander-in-Chief General Zaluzhnyi was formally dismissed from military service and appointed as Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain.
Russia
Ukraine continues to launch long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, including oil depots and refineries.
Russia’s annual May 9th Victory Day parade once more included a greatly reduced number of military vehicles due to massive deployments to and losses in Ukraine.
International
Poland announced it was financing 20,000 Starlink mobile internet devices in Ukraine. Germany announced it would purchase three HIMARS for Ukraine from the United States, while Germany companies announced they would send more radars and even prototype ultra long-range artillery shells. Estonia announced it had delivered two patrol boats to Ukraine. Latvia announced it would provide anti-air missiles and other items. Norway announced a $650 million aid package targeting air defenses. The United States announced another $400 million aid package including air defense missiles, anti-tank missiles, armored vehicles, and other munitions.
European countries agreed to begin funding Ukraine using profits derived from frozen Russian governmental assets, amounting to at least $4.75 billion.
According to Western intelligence officials, Russia is planning on expanding covert operations in the West, potentially including bombings and other attacks, consistent with other hostile activities carried out in recent years.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟥 Major action. Russian forces captured Strilecha, northeast of Kharkiv. Russian forces captured Krasne, northeast of Kharkiv. Russian forces captured Pylna, northeast of Kharkiv. Russian forces captured Borisivka, northeast of Kharkiv. Russian attacks towards Vovchansk likely made marginal gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian forces captured Kyslivka. Russian forces captured Kotlyarivka. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove made limited gains. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Russian attacks west of Kreminna made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Assessment: After months of speculation about a possible attack, Russian forces have reopened the long-abandoned Kharkiv Front, making minor gains in several villages northeast of Kharkiv. Russia has amassed a substantial contingent in neighboring Belgorod Oblast, potentially indicating a sustained, large-scale operation. See the Weekly Conclusion.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks north of Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Fighting reported around Chasiv Yar. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian forces captured Keramik. Russian forces captured Arkhanlske. Russian attacks around Ocheretyne made limited gains. Russian forces captured Umanske. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian assaults in Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, made gains. Russian attacks around Staromaiorske made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Russian assaults in Robotyne made marginal gains.
Assessment: Russian forces are stepping up attacks south of Velyka Novosilka, likely for local tactical reasons and not as part of a broader operation. The situation in the Robotyne Salient remains largely static.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Ukrainian counterassaults in Krynky made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Oleshky made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Russian forces have launched a renewed cross-border offensive north of Kharkiv, the first re-invasion of previously abandoned Ukrainian territory of the war and the first major cross-border attack since the initial invasion. Though potentially very important, this operation comes as no surprise, with many analysts having previously speculated that such an attack was likely following Russia’s amassing of a corps-sized (~50,000 man) unit in neighboring Belgorod Oblast and sustained attacks on Kharkiv’s civil infrastructure in recent months.
While the ultimate aim of Russian forces is to capture the whole of Kharkiv Oblast, their capacity to achieve this goal seems limited, with the formations gathered in Belgorod Oblast likely insufficient to effect the seizure of a well-defended city of two million that has previously rebuffed a previous Russian effort from this direction.
Instead, the Russian attack is best understood as aiming to set the ground for an eventual capture of Kharkiv while serving two other purposes in the near-term: 1) acting as a feint aimed at drawing crucial Ukrainian resources away from the decisive point of battle in northern Donetsk Oblast, and 2) acting as a punitive expedition aimed at inflicting economic and moral pain on Ukraine by threatening and damaging its second-largest city.
The impact of this new front will reside mostly on how much support this attack receives. It may be prioritized and turned into yet another large attritional front, or it may be abandoned quickly for lack of resources or result. Most likely, it will lie somewhere in the middle between these two extremes, large enough to divert Ukrainian units without sucking in needless sums of materiel. As always, only time will tell.
