Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces launched numerous attacks on Ukrainian cities, power generation facilities, and non-military infrastructure across Ukraine. The intentional targeting of civilians and non-military civil infrastructure is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
Ukraine announced it would no longer provide services at its embassies to military-age citizens, except those to assist them in returning to Ukraine. This is part of a wider mobilization effort.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov announced that Ukraine had made significant progress in reforming its defense industry and combating corruption, a priority during Umerov’s tenure.
Russia
Ukrainian drones once again struck Russian oil and petrochemical facilities across western Russia, as well as power transmission facilities.
A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber was shot down inside Russia, reportedly by Ukrainian forces using a modified S-200 air defense system.
Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Ivanov was arrested on charges of corruption.
International
The United States Congress passed a long-delayed aid bill for Ukraine; see the Weekly Conclusion. Britain announced its largest-ever aid package for Ukraine, worth over $600 million and including 400 vehicles, air defense munitions, small boats, millions of small arms rounds, and more. The Netherlands promised an additional $220 million in aid for air defense equipment. Latvia announced it would also provide air defense equipment. Denmark announced it would provide $315 million in aid, including $30 million to be spent purchasing from Ukrainian industry. Spain announced it would provide additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine, though it rebuffed requests that it send a battery.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported northwest of Kreminna. Russian attacks west of Kreminna made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian counterattacks northeast of Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported around Spirne. Russian attacks east of Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian attacks south of Bakhmut made marginal gains. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian assaults in Noovkalynove made gains. Russian assaults on Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka, made significant gains. Russian forces captured Novobakhmutivka. Russian forces captured Solovyove. Russian forces captured Berdychi. Russian forces likely captured Semenivka. Russian attacks west of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian attacks on Heorhiivka made gains. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made gains.
Assessment: Conditions in this sector have further deteriorated. Russian forces are making notable gains across the breadth of the front and are likely to make more, though as yet the extent of those gains is largely limited and tactical in nature. The situation in Donetsk Oblast is serious.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Verbove. Russian assaults in Robotyne made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Ukrainian counterassaults in Krynky made marginal gains. Fighting reported around the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Note: This is Part 1 of a brief two-part response to the passage of the United States’s new Ukraine aid bill. This week’s piece deals with the aid itself, while next week’s will cover the grim situation the bill represents.
After months of delays from far-right obstructionists in Congress, the United States has finally passed – by an overwhelming majority – a four-part, $95 billion security package, about $61 billion of which was allotted to Ukraine. The breakdown is as follows:
- $11 billion funding American and Allied operations in Europe which indirectly support Ukraine.
- $23 billion for replenishing American stockpiles and equipment, with old replaced equipment being sent to Ukraine.
- $14 billion in direct purchasing munitions and equipment for Ukraine.
- $8 billion provided to the Ukrainian for the paying of salaries and other services.
Prior to the bill’s passage, President Biden indicated that the United States military had already prepositioned aid near Ukraine, ready for immediate delivery. Thus on the same day the bill was signed, a $1 billion package was announced, including anti-air and anti-tank missiles, mortar and artillery shells and missiles, Bradley IFVs, and other vehicles. This was followed two days later by a $6 billion long-term package funding the production of air defense munitions, drones, radars, artillery shells, ammunition, and other capabilities.
Though not a silver bullet, this aid provides immense relief. European nations have given much, but they simply do not possess the deep reserves and military manufacturing capacity of the United States. Time must be bought to allow Ukraine to shore up its defenses, stand up new formations, and rebuild old units battered by constant fighting. The rapid influx of American materiel – especially artillery shells – is absolutely necessary to buy this time and to prevent the Kremlin from making further battlefield gains in Donetsk Oblast.
Still, the context of this news is grim. Failure to act has cost thousands of Ukrainian men and women their lives and allowed Russia to regain the initiative. Already there is talk that this aid bill might be the last, and whispers that some officials seek to force Ukraine to accept a “peace” that would leave millions of its citizens under the oppressive rule of a Putinist regime that views any ceasefire as temporary. That delay and these whispers compound the terrible risks we already face, painting us as feckless, unreliable, and weak.
