Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces continue to carry out intensified Terror Bombing attacks on Ukrainian cities, striking residential buildings and destroying vital civil infrastructure. At least 17 civilians were killed and another 61 injured in a single attack on an apartment in Chernihiv, far from the frontlines. The intentional targeting of civilians and non-military civil infrastructure is a violation of the laws of war.
Russian forces continue to make use of drone-dropped tear gas grenades. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Ukrainian leaders expressed anger at the effort made by the United States and other nations to safeguard Israel from Iranian attack while Ukrainian cities have endured weeks of bombardment.
A Ukrainian strike, apparently using at least one ATACMS cluster missile, destroyed an entire Russian S-400 air defense battery defending the Dzhankoi airbase in occupied Crimea. It is unclear if any aircraft were damaged or destroyed.
In an extraordinary move, Ukrainian commanders ordered the 67th Mechanized Brigade – deployed to the vital town of Chasiv Yar – to disband and directed its soldiers be folded into other formations. The former unit’s commanders are reportedly under investigation for mistreating conscripts and abandoning positions.
Russia
Russian high command reportedly dismissed the generals in charge of operations around Krynky and Robotyne, likely in view of their inability to make notable gains despite months of attacks.
A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber was apparently downed by a modified Ukrainian S-200 air defense battery. It is unclear if it will be possible for this to be repeated.
International
Lithuania announced another aid package for Ukraine including generators and counter-drone equipment. The Netherlands announced an additional $1.1 billion in military and $450 million in economic aid for Ukraine in 2024. Germany announced it would provide an additional Patriot air defense system amidst Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians. Lithuania, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany announced over $200 million in funding for purchasing Ukraine drones. Montenegro announced it would assist in training Ukrainian soldiers.
Two Russo-Germans were arrested in Germany for conspiring to sabotage German and/or Allied military infrastructure. In Poland, a man was arrested for planning to assassinate President Zelenskyy. Russia has repeatedly murdered Western citizens, Russian expats, and sabotaged arms factories in NATO nations.
American Congressional efforts to pass aid for Ukraine have finally made progress; see the Weekly Conclusion.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northwest of Kreminna. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Fighting reported south of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian counterattacks east of Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Russian attacks southeast of Siversk made limited gains. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Russian attacks towards Chasiv Yar made marginal gains. Russian attacks northwest of Klishchiivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian attacks on Novokalynove, north of Avdiivka, made gains. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made significant gains. Fighting reported northwest of Marinka. Russian assaults in Pobieda, southwest of Marinka, made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: Russian gains in this sector have accelerated. Continued failure to rapidly resupply Ukrainian forces in this region will enable Russian advances towards the crucial cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk. The situation in Donetsk Oblast is growing serious.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Vuhledar. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Russian assaults in Robotyne made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
After months of delays, the United States Congress has finally moved to pass a new Ukraine aid bill alongside three other pieces of national security legislation. The measure for a final vote passed with overwhelming support from both parties and even managed to receive some praise from disgraced former President and Republican presidential nominee Trump.
The aid this bill authorizes is critical, and its absence has had very real consequences. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed over the past five months because America has failed to deliver the arms it promised. Ukraine’s continued ability to resist Russia’s non-stop air and ground attacks is contingent upon American resupply efforts, with multiple officials – American, Ukrainian, and European alike – warning that the war may well be lost this year if aid is not rapidly delivered.
Speaker of the House Johnson has moved slowly, but he is not entirely to blame. Unexpectedly thrust into leadership after the the chaotic disintegration of the Republican House caucus late last year, he has faced incessant opposition from his party’s far-right fringe, who have promised to oust him should he bring this bill to the floor – a promise they look set to keep. Without support from Democrats, this move may cost Johnson his job. That he seems comfortable with that fact is worthy of some (begrudging) respect:
“History judges us for what we do… I could make a selfish decision now and do something that’s different, but I’m doing what I believe to be the right thing. I believe that providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. I really do… I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our [other] NATO allies. To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is about to start in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me, as it is for so many American families.”
