Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces conducted another double-tap strike (where an area is hit twice in rapid succession in order to kill emergency workers) as part of this week’s strikes on civilian targets, killing at least three first responders. The intentional targeting of civilians and emergency personnel is a heinous violation of the laws of war.
Russian forces reportedly continue to expand their use of tear gas grenades in several areas of the frontline. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.d
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations, again striking major civil infrastructure such as electricity and heating plants, including – for the first time – entirely destroying a large thermal plant in Kharkiv Oblast. These Terror Bombing attacks have no purpose beyond causing general, indiscriminate harm to Ukraine’s civilian population.
President Zelenskyy stated that if American military aid is not provided, Ukrainian forces will be forced to continue retreating “in small steps” as they struggle with supply issues that have had an immensely detrimental effect on Ukrainian defenses.
Russia
Ukraine conducted its longest-range strikes of the war, hitting a drone factory and oil refinery 700 miles deep inside Russia using a modified, remote-controlled light aircraft filled with explosives. It is unclear how the aircraft was not downed by Russian air defenses.
Additionally, large numbers of of Ukrainian drones were used to strike several Russian airbases, reportedly damaging or destroying around a dozen aircraft, though this has yet to be confirmed.
Russia launched its bi-annual spring conscription cycle, with this season’s intake set at 150,000 conscripts. The conscription cycle is not connected to the war, and thus far it appears the Kremlin is strenuously avoiding another unpopular mobilization wave as occurred in late 2022.
International
After six months of needless delays, United States Speaker of the House Johnson has unveiled the first parts of a plan to fund aid for Ukraine, including a proposal to reopen new permits for American natural gas exports (closed by the Biden Administration at the beginning of the year despite European Allies’ need to replace Russian natural gas) in return for the funding.
France vowed to supply Ukraine with a major arms package in the near-future including hundreds of APCs and large numbers of air defense munitions. Finland announced a $205 million aid package for Ukraine including artillery shells and air defense munitions.
NATO nations are strongly considering a $108 billion, five-year fund that is intended to backstop Western aid for Ukraine in the event of further failures on the part of the United States.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Synkivka. Russian attacks west of Svatove likely repelled. Russian attacks west of Kreminna made limited gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks south of Bilohorivka made limited gains. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Russian attacks north of Soledar made limited gains. Russian assaults in Ivanivske made gains. Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar repulsed. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Niu York. Russian attacks west of Avdiivka made limited gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian attacks southeast of Krasnohorivka made limited gains. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported near Vuhledar. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky. Russian attacks southwest of Krynky made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
I would like to review Colonel General Syrskyi’s performance as Commander-in-Chief, but the two months that have passed since he replaced General Zaluzhnyi have yet to make the impact of his accession clear. To get a better idea of his performance would require at least a few more months’ time and likely the undertaking of a major military operation independent of his predecessor, whether that be a new counteroffensive or a large defensive effort.
However, my preliminary analysis thus far is that fears (including my own) regarding Syrskyi’s elevation appear to have been overblown. Syrskyi has comported himself well to the role and has proven himself an able spokesman for Ukraine’s cause (if noticeably less able than Zaluzhnyi) and, at least to date, has yet to give any further ammunition to charges that he wasted mens’ lives at Bakhmut. The pull out from Avdiivka for example, while late, was not overly late or disastrous.
Time will tell if this holds, and whether Syrskyi’s previous critics are given further reason to doubt his competence. Syrskyi has not yet had enough time to make his own major mark as commander-in-chief. His reputation as a “Soviet-style” general willing to waste his mens’ lives in bloody assaults and defenses is well-known, and opportunities have not yet presented themselves for any such tendencies to show. For now, however, his elevation does not appear to have had a detriment on Ukrainian forces or their military strategy going forward.
