Articles and Reporting
Yet another excellent video from Australian military analyst Perun, an overview on the state of the war in Ukraine as of early 2024.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
A Russian missile attack on an apartment building in Odesa killed at least a dozen civilians, including several children, as part of Russia’s second Terror Bombing campaign. The intentional targeting of civilians is a violation of the laws of war.
The International Criminal Court issued its second set of warrants relating to the war in Ukraine, this time for the commander of Russia’s strategic bombing wing and the former (likely already killed) head of the Black Sea Fleet, both of which have been extensively involved in indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians.
Russian forces reportedly employed tear gas grenades once again. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Ukrainian forces successfully sunk the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov, once again using unmanned explosive naval drones. It is the third Russian warship sunk this year. Ukraine also claimed to have downed several more aircraft, though no evidence was provided.
President Zelenskyy nominated former Commander-in-Chief General Zaluzhnyi to be ambassador to Britain, representing a likely amenable compromise that keeps the highly popular general out of the country in an important role while allowing him to nurture any post-war political hopes he may have.
Zelenskyy decreed that conscripts who have served since the war’s beginning will be discharged within the next two months and will be exempt from further duty for at least a year, likely part of a wider effort to regenerate and rotate Ukrainian forces.
Dutch Prime Minister Rutte and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis visited Ukraine and met with President Zelenskyy, with the latter experiencing a missile attack on the city of Odesa during his visit.
Ukrainian officials and commanders indicated that Ukraine would attempt another counteroffensive in 2024, despite significant headwinds and hopes amongst some Western and Ukrainian officers and analysts that Ukraine would invest in resting and recuperating its forces for 2025.
Russia
Ukraine responded to continued Russian air bombardments with several moderately large drone attacks of its own on targets in occupied Crimea and southern Russia.
Russia rejected a Turkish offer to mediate a ceasefire in Ukraine, and once more indicated it aims to annex almost the whole of Ukraine, minus perhaps a rump vassal state in the west. Ukraine later rejected the terms as well, reiterating that any pause in the fighting would give Russia time to rebuild its battered army.
International
French President Macron and Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski again indicated that Western troops could be deployed to Ukraine, with Czech President Pavel agreeing that Western nations could train troops in Ukraine without engaging in belligerence. Germany once more tried to clamp down on such sentiments.
Czechia announced that its effort to purchase 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine from international sources is making progress, with the first 300,000 shells set to begin deliveries in weeks.
German Chancellor Scholz once more refused to provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles, despite intense pressure and the leak of a German military conversation about the missiles by Russia, an obvious attempt to deter Germany from providing munitions.
The Polish-Ukrainian border has been closed for several days due to an ongoing protest by Polish farmers against the importation of Ukrainian grain, trapping thousands of freight trucks.
With the delivery of its accession documents to the United States, Sweden formally joined NATO, ending two centuries of neutrality.
The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution calling for Russia to remove its forces from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar amidst continued reports of Russian mismanagement of the facility and mistreatment of its employees.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks on northern Synkivka made gains. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian attacks on Terny, west of Kreminna, made gains. Fighting reported south of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported around Spirne. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Russian attacks on Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut made gains. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported northwest of Horlivka. Fighting reported east of Niu York. Russian attacks around Novobakhmutivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks towards Berdychi made gains. Russian forces likely captured Orlivka. Russian assaults in Tonenke made gains. Fighting reported around Vodyane. Russian attacks on Pervomaiske possibly made gains. Russian attacks on southern Krasnohorivka possibly made gains. Russian assaults in Heorhiivka made gains. Fighting reported around Pobieda. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka likely made gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made limited gains.
Assessment: No substantial change around Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces around Avdiivka appear to have slowed the Russian advance and begun preparing fortifications west of the current frontline, potentially stabilizing the front. Fighting around Marinka remains largely static.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks northwest of Verbove made gains. Ukrainian counterattacks made gains around Robotyne.
Assessment: Russian efforts to close the Robotyne Salient appear to have been stalled by effective Ukrainian counterattacks.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian assaults in Krynky made limited gains. Fighting reported around Kozachi Laheri. Fighting reported around Oleshky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
No report or assessment for today. Still waiting to assess the state of the front around Avdiivka.
