Articles and Reporting
Another excellent video from Australian defense analyst Perun, this time an interview with aviation expert Professor Bronk detailing the overall state of the air war in Ukraine as of early 2024, lessons learned thus far, and trends going forward. Concluding the video is a sobering assessment of the ramifications should the West fail to defend Ukraine – as it has sworn to do.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian soldiers were filmed executing at least another nine surrendering Ukrainian soldiers west of Bakhmut. The summary execution of POWs – a practice that at least some Russian units appear to be engaging in systematically – is a heinous violation of the laws of war.
Russian occupation authorities are reportedly aiming to expand the conscription of Ukrainian men in the occupied regions. The conscription of foreign civilians in occupied territory is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Ukraine claims to have downed several more Russian fighter aircraft, though it is unclear how many were actually intercepted.
According to President Zelenskyy, at least 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the Russian invasion. The real number is likely higher.
United States Senate Majority Leader Schumer, European Union Commission von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, and Belgian Prime Minister de Croo all made visits to Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy also made a visit to Albania.
Russia
Russia is reportedly looking to restart its production line of A-50 AWACS following the mysterious downing of at least two of these extremely rare and valuable aircraft. Any effort to resume production will take a significant amount of time to achieve results.
International
In a strange but potentially major development, French President Macron unexpectedly announced the possibility of deploying troops directly inside Ukraine and stated that Russia must be stopped in Ukraine before it invades a NATO country. Even more unexpectedly, German Chancellor Scholz attempted to unilaterally deny Macron’s statement, while also accidentally appearing to reveal Britain and France’s direct assistance in planning Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil (a major security breach). France responded by reiterating Macron’s position, stating that troops may be deployed “without crossing the threshold of [war],” and that “nothing should be excluded.”
A coalition of at least fifteen European countries have finally begun purchasing artillery shells for Ukraine directly from international suppliers, weeks after Czechia publicly noted the availability of nearly a million on the open market.
Hungary formally approved Sweden’s application to join NATO, setting the stage for the formal entrance of the Alliance’s 32nd member.
Canada and the Netherlands have become the latest countries to sign long-term security agreements with Ukraine, joining France, Germany, Britain, Italy, and Denmark.
Britain announced nearly $11 million of humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Germany announced an aid package including min-clearing equipment, 14,000 shells, and drones, amongst other things. The Netherlands announced the provision of over 20 military boats. As part of their security pacts, Canada and the Netherlands each pledged an additional $2.2 billion in funding through 2024.
Regional Military Updates
Note: Colored squares are no longer used to identify fronts, but the intensity of fighting: green for limited, orange for significant, and red for major.
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Synkivka, northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks on Tabaivka, southeast of Kivsharivka, made gains. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Assessment: Russian forces continue to launch persistent attacks across much of the front but have largely failed to make headway, as has been the case for several months.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut made limited gains. Russian assaults on Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut, likely made limited gains. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Andriivka, south of Klishchiivka. Fighting reported around Kurdyumivka, south of Andriivka. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Fighting reported around Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Niu York. Russian forces captured Stepove, northwest of Avdiivka. Russian attacks on Berdychi, west of Stepove, made gains. Fighting reported around Semenivka, southwest of Berdychi. Russian forces captured Orlivka, west of Avdiivka. Russian forces captured Lastochkyne, west of Avdiivka. Russian forces captured Sieverne, southwest of Avdiivka. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian attacks on Krasnohorivka made limited gains. Fighting reported around Heorhiivka, northwest of Marinka. Fighting reported around Pobieda, southwest of Marinka. Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka made limited gains.
Assessment: Russian forces continue to make marginal gains around Bakhmut and are potentially hoping to break through west of the city, though Ukrainian defenses there remain substantial. Ukrainian forces are struggling to establish a new line of defense west of Avdiivka, with the Russians pursuing them and making steady gains.
Southern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Vuhledar. Fighting reported south of Huliaipole. Fighting reported southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Russian attacks on Robotyne made gains. Fighting reported around Kamianske.
Assessment: Russian forces have begun their effort to eliminate the salient around Robotyne left behind by the Ukrainian counteroffensive, though advances thus far have been marginal. The rest of this front is largely quiet.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported in Krynky. Fighting reported around the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Assessment: Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited amphibious operations along the Dnieper but have not yet attempted a serious crossing, and are unlikely to do so in the near future.
Weekly Conclusion
Note: Welcome to the Weekly Update, or at least its initial four-week trial period. Hopefully, future updates will be shorter than this one as I seek to calibrate and compress the new format. What follows is a brief note on the passage of the war’s second year. Ideally, a post-mortem of the Battle of Avdiivka will be provided next week, provided the situation there stabilizes enough to be assessed.
Over 730 days ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
I find it difficult to find the words sometimes. What is there to say that I haven’t already said for two years?
A brave, nascent democracy has fought courageously and against overwhelming odds to preserve its freedom, its independence, its way of life. With tenacity and grim determination, the Ukrainian people have resisted a fascist dictator hellbent on pursuing the restoration of a dead empire. Their sacrifice in doing so has been unimaginably enormous, laudable, and awe-inspiring.
Meanwhile, in the world’s quietest and wealthiest capitals, we have dawdled, twiddled our thumbs, and argued amongst ourselves about how much this war might cost us, we who have only ever seen Bucha through a TV screen, the forests of Izyum in photographs, the torture chambers of Kherson in media reports, the mass graves of Mariupol from satellites.
This war has been the most inspiring thing I have ever personally witnessed. It has also been the most despairing.
Russia will not stop in Ukraine. It will continue its revanchist quest, seeking and creating weakness, exploiting it wherever it is found. And dictators will not stop in Europe. No amount of head-burying will change the fact that Ukraine has become a litmus test for Western resolve. Failure here will have unavoidable global ramifications. A century later, the lessons of the 1920s and 30s have been forgotten, even as history threatens to repeat itself. Ukraine’s security is not just a moral imperative, it is a strategic necessity that coincides with our own, most selfish interests. To fail Ukraine is, ultimately, to fail ourselves.
They are the ones doing the bleeding, the suffering, and the dying. The least we can do is foot the bill.
