Day 730
Articles and Reporting
With the war’s two-year anniversary coming tomorrow, I once again highly recommend the excellent documentary Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom, produced by Netflix and released for free on YouTube a week after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Covering the 2013-14 Euromaidan Protest that precipitated the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is an important look at the most consequential moment in Ukrainian history since independence.
Perhaps even more importantly, I also heavily recommend the documentary 20 Days in Mariupol, produced by Frontline PBS and AP News, and also released for free on YouTube. It tells the story of Ukrainian AP News journalist Mstyslav Chernov and his colleagues’ times as the only international reporters left in the city of Mariupol during the first three weeks of its siege. The footage included is graphic and horrifying. Since watching the start of this conflict in real time ten years ago, the city of Mariupol has long held a special place in my mind. Its destruction – and the murder of tens of thousands of its inhabitants – is a story that needs to be told.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
In what appears to be another friendly fire incident, Russian air defenses downed another A-50U AWACS aircraft over Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia. A-50s are exceptionally rare and valuable aircraft that Russia does not have the ability to replace, permanently degrading Russian aerial command and control capacity.
President Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine is continuing to prepare for further counteroffensive efforts in 2024, though he noted that delays in Western aid are hampering these efforts.
NATO countries announced another large package of sanctions aimed at punishing the Kremlin for the death of democratic activist Navalny and further degrading Russian industry and military supply chains.
Regional Military Updates
Note: All maps except that of Avdiivka are sixty-five days old, and will be fully replaced by Spatial Grounds maps if/when they become fully available.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Synkivka. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Russian attacks on Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut, made gains. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Fighting reported around Andriivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian forces possibly captured Stepove; unclear. Russian attacks towards Lastochkyne likely made gains. Russian attacks on Sieverne likely made limited gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian attacks on southern Krasnohorivka possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Heorhiivka. Fighting reported around Pobieda. Russian attacks south of Novomykhailikvka made marginal gains.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Fighting reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne. Fighting reported in Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
No report or assessment for today.
