Day 728
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Iran has reportedly provided Russia with 400 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) following months of rumors about a possible deal. Substantially superior to those previously received from North Korea, these SRBMs are more difficult to intercept and can reach across much of Ukraine. Deliveries reportedly began in January when previous United Nations sanctions on Iranian weapons exports expired.
A Russian/American dual citizen was arrested while visiting Russia for donating $51 to a Ukrainian charity.
Ukraine claimed to have downed another Russian Su-34, the seventh such claimed downing in recent days.
Regional Military Updates
Note: All maps except that of Avdiivka are sixty-three days old, and will be fully replaced by Spatial Grounds maps if/when they become fully available.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Synkivka. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Fighting reported west of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported around Stepove. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made limited gains. Fighting reported around Lastochkyne. Fighting reported around Sieverne. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Russian attacks south of Krasnohorivka possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Heorhiivka. Russian forces captured Pobieda. Fighting reported around Novomykhailivka.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Fighting reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Significant action. Fighting reported southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Russian attacks west of Verbove made limited gains. Russian attacks south of Robotyne likely made gains. Russian assaults in western Robotyne made limited gains.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported in and around Krynky, where Russian forces made gains.
Daily Conclusion
Notable Russian milblogger Morozov – a soldier serving with the 4th SMRB – committed suicide after he was ordered to remove posts claiming that at least 16,000 Russian soldiers were killed and 300 vehicles lost around Avdiivka, with his commanders reportedly threatening to withhold munitions and supplies from his unit and likely planning to arrest him if he refused to do so.
Morozov’s suicide note included a scathing denunciation of the Russian officer corps and war effort as a whole, consistent with widely-held views among (pro-war) milbloggers hostile to the Kremlin’s leadership. Many of those who have publicly expressed such views – most notably Prigozhin and Girkin – have either been silenced or frightened into withholding their thoughts over the last year.
That Morozov committed suicide because military leader sought to suppress his (largely accurate) reporting underscores how poor Russian morale is on the front and widespread distrust in wartime leadership and the Russian officer corps among soldiers. The Kremlin’s insistence on papering over deep issues and its tendency to attack those who work to alleviate them remains a serious point of contention within the Russian military and the analysts who cover it.
While it remains as unlikely as ever that poor morale will play a decisive role in the conflict, it is readily apparent that the Kremlin’s actions are an active detriment to its own forces, and has created a subpar fighting force that is often – corrosively and publicly – at odds with itself even in the wake of a victory.
