Day 724
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Ukrainian forces completed their withdrawal from Avdiivka – including the Coke Plant, surprisingly – leaving Russian forces in control of the town. Some Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly captured but not in large numbers or whole units, though much equipment was reportedly left behind, making the evacuation moderately successful.
Ukrainian forces once again claimed to have downed three Su-34/35 using a Patriot air defense system, though only one loss appears to have been confirmed.
Russian forces launched attacks around Robotyne following reports that they were massing troops south of Orikhiv, aiming to retake the ground liberated by Ukraine last year.
Regional Military Updates
Note: All maps except that of Avdiivka are fifty-nine days old, and will be fully replaced by Spatial Grounds maps if/when they become fully available.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Synkivka. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported southeast of Siversk. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut made marginal gains. Fighting reported west of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Fighting reported around Andriivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Major action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian forces captured Avdiivka. Fighting reported around Sieverne. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Fighting reported around Heorhiivka. Fighting reported around Pobieda. Fighting reported around Novomykhailivka.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Fighting reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Significant action. Russian attacks southeast of Mala Tokmachka repelled. Russian attacks around Verbove repelled. Russian attacks south of Robotyne made limited gains.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia was able to establish some measure of air superiority over Avdiivka during the latter stages of the battle for the first time in the war, with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) providing relatively substantial amounts of air support during the last stage of that operation.
Though troubling, this development is undercut by several notable points. Firstly was Avdiivka’s status as a deep salient surrounded on three sides by Russian artillery, making the deployment of frontline air defense difficult. Second is the widespread use of glide bombs by the VKS, a brute force method that reduces the potential impact of air strikes. Third is the generally poor capacity for the VKS to conduct modern, complex air operations, something that is not lessened by its ability to launch more sorties throwing bombs at a fixed, unmoving city.
Still, this represents a continued area of concern. Ukraine is reportedly beginning to suffer serious attrition rates on its air defense munition stockpile, with alternatives such as F-16 and other promised air defense systems yet to arrive. If used properly, the VKS is easily Russia’s single most asymmetric capability, an air force that is far larger, far more modern, and far more well-equipped than anything Ukraine can field. If it were capable of successfully fighting in the Western manner, it is doubtful the situation on the ground would be as favorable to Ukraine as it is currently.
Further improvements in the capacity of the VKS to engage at scale could have large impacts on the battlefield going forward if such brief periods of local air superiority expand in length and scale. It is imperative that Western forces remedy this potential advantage through the application of more numerous and deadly systems capable of keeping the VKS flying fast, low, and scared, as it has for most of the conflict.
