Day 715
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces launched another wave of Terror Bombing attacks on Ukrainian civil infrastructure (though they claimed to be targeting weapons factories), killing at least five civilians and injuring 50 more while knocking out power to tens of thousands of homes. Three-quarters of the drones and missiles were intercepted. The intentional targeting of civilians is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged another 100 prisoners of war.
President Zelenskyy announced his intention to revamp the Ukrainian war effort, starting with the replacement of General Zaluzhnyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces; see the Daily Conclusion.
Regional Military Updates
Note: All maps except that of Avdiivka are fifty days old, and will be fully replaced by Spatial Grounds maps if/when they become fully available.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Significant action. The Russian Svatove Offensive is ongoing. Russian attacks around Synkivka possibly made marginal gains. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Russian attacks southwest of Kreminna made limited gains.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Ukrainian counterattacks around Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Fighting reported west of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported east of Novokalynove. Russian assaults in eastern Stepove made marginal gains. Russian attacks on Avdiivka possibly made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Fighting reported around Krasnohorivka. Russian attacks around Heorhiivka possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Pobieda. Russian attacks on eastern Novomykhailivka made limited gains.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. No offensive action reported.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
General Zaluzhnyi was officially dismissed from his position as Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and was replaced by Colonel General Syrskyi, formerly head of the Ground Forces and field commander of the Svatove and Bakhmut Fronts.
Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal and Syrskyi’s elevation were met with broad derision from many Ukrainian soldiers, officers, and military analysts. While Zaluzhnyi’s strengths and achievements are well-known and were previously discussed, Syrskyi himself is the source of much of the ire surrounding Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal.
To put it bluntly, Syrskyi is not a popular man. Several years older than Zaluzhnyi, he started his career not with Ukraine, but the Soviet Union, and he is generally assessed to be more conservative, less flexible, and less imaginative than his younger, Western-oriented counterpart. He has been accused of mishandling both the attacks towards Svatove after the Kupyansk Counteroffensive and often (quite venomously) accused of bungling the Battle of Bakhmut. He has also been repeatedly accused of engaging in the same Soviet-esque “meat” assaults that the Russians are infamous for, and which many Ukrainians decry as a hallmark of “Soviet” generals. Officers with knowledge of his staff have derided his brusque and uncompromising command style, and he is not reported to be a popular man personally.
None of these are positive traits in a general, let alone a Commander-in-Chief. His selection was obvious, however, because of his former position as head of the largest element in the Ukrainian military (the Ground Forces), his long service record, and his experience commanding several of Ukraine’s more notable battles. For reasons of seniority, the job was his by default unless declined. All in all, Syrskyi is an uninspired choice – and, given the response from most of those in uniform, an uninspiring one as well.
It will take some time to assess whether or not Syrskyi’s elevation is a mistake. For now, however, his service record and the withering criticism he has received from both in and out of the military is not promising, particularly when compared to Zaluzhnyi’s almost universal approval (outside of the Ukrainian government, at least). However, the decisions made by Zaluzhnyi over the past two years will continue going forward, as the momentum of his choices and vision will continue to influence the military for months or years to come.
