Day 705

Widely circulating, simultaneous leaks from a variety of governmental and military sources – all appearing highly credible, and which I am inclined to believe – indicate that President Zelenskyy came close on Monday to dismissing General Zaluzhnyi from his position as Commander-in-Chief (CiC) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

As news of Zaluzhnyi’s potential dismissal was reported, public outcry very quickly threatened to transform into public outrage. While still very popular, Zelenskyy has experienced the lessening of enthusiasm common amongst leaders enduring a prolonged conflict. Zaluzhnyi, by contrast, is almost certainly the most popular man in the country. That Zaluzhnyi was at risk of being dismissed while the (deservedly) oft-criticized General Syrskyi – head of the Ground Forces and commander of Ukrainian troops around Bakhmut – appeared not only secure but possibly in line to succeed the CiC only worsened matters. Likely for these reasons, Zelenskyy appears to have backed away from any decision to dismiss Zaluzhnyi, at least for now.

Precisely why this happened is unclear. Tensions inside Ukraine’s high command have reportedly multiplied since the stalling off the 2023 counteroffensive, briefly surfacing publicly late last year when Zelenskyy (who likely ordered the counteroffensive for legitimate political reasons) and Zaluzhnyi (who appears to have been at least partially opposed to the counteroffensive for equally legitimate military reasons) offered differing accounts of the counteroffensive’s status and the next steps going forward. The aforementioned difference in popularity between the two men may also be at fault – civilian authorities rarely enjoy being overshadowed by military commanders. It is, however, unclear how antagonistic the two men’s personal relationship really is, and there is much happening behind closed doors that we do not and cannot know.

Still, any decision to dismiss Zaluzhnyi seems exceedingly ill-advised. Widely admired and respected by all relevant parties at home and abroad, the CiC has proven himself to be an able and effective commander, capable of planning and executing stunningly successful operations with meager and diverse resources. What failures Ukraine has experienced thus far – the rapid advance of the Russians in the south early war, the siege of Mariupol, and the stalling of the 2023 counteroffensive – can hardly be ascribed to him personally (though he is certainly not faultless). Until proven otherwise, it seems distinctly unwise to doubt his capabilities.

Given the murkiness of the entire situation, there is no real conclusion to be drawn. What we can see is the tip of the iceberg. In fact, due to official denials, there is even some doubt as to whether this took place at all. For now, we must watch and wait to see if the situation develops further.