Day 674

Note: Data on strike volume over the past several months retrieved from Konrad Muzyka, which can be found here. Additionally, while it is possible that Russia is carrying out these strikes in the hopes of forcing Ukrainian air defenses away from the frontlines following their recent success, this is speculation piled on top of speculation, and is not worth considering until more relevant information is available.

Russian forces conducted their largest Terror Bombing attack on Ukrainian cities since the war began, launching at least three dozen drones and over 120 missiles in a single day. While Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted around 75% of both, the volume of fire, large number of incoming directions, and variety of cities struck allowed a substantial number of projectiles to slip through Ukraine’s air defense screen.

Of those projectiles which did land, most appear to have targeted civilian targets, few of which appear to have been even potentially justifiable infrastructure such as power generation facilities or transformers. Instead, the targets list included multiple apartment buildings, medical facilities, shopping centers, schools, and homes. At least dozens of civilians were killed and hundreds more injured, with the exact figures still uncertain.

Russian forces clearly possessed the munitions and organizational capacity to select specific military targets – such as airbases, munitions depots, or headquarters – and attack them with an overwhelming volume of fire, potentially enabling significant damage. That it instead chose to spread its fire across as many civilian targets as possible evinces a philosophy of pursuing the infliction punishment and fear over military effectiveness – the very definition of “terror bombing,” and a clear violation of the laws of war.

The scale of this strike is significant. It was widely assumed (and evidenced by strike patterns) that Russia has spent much of the second half of 2023 attempting to rebuild its stockpile of long-range precision munitions, which reportedly ran low after the first Terror Bombing campaign. This single attack – 50% larger than all attacks carried out since September of 2023, combined – represents a serious commitment of those likely limited resources.

While it is possible that this represents the “true” start of the second Terror Bombing campaign, this seems unlikely, at least for now. Russian missile production reportedly lagged behind Kremlin expectations despite efforts to expand output, and Russia does not yet appear to have accepted delivery of Iranian alternatives. It seems more likely that this attack was either a one-off preceding a smaller but more consistent campaign (likely employing more drones than missiles), or the first in a series of low-quantity, high-volume strikes.

Whatever else, this attack should (but will not) decisively silence those voices in the West who continue to call for a “ceasefire” or “negotiations” that they mistakenly believe Putin is interested in pursuing. The Kremlin does not seek peace, and its openly stated war aims – which include the subjugation of all Ukraine, the further annexation of its sovereign territory, and the erasure of Ukraine’s cultural identity – have not changed. Flirting with Kremlin propaganda while ignoring the realities of its amoral and illegal conduct has no end except those which are preferred by a genocidal dictator and his cronies.