Day 668
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
The Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade released a statement claiming that it has begun making use of K-51 chemical irritant (i.e. riot control) grenades on Ukrainian forces in Krynky. The use of chemical weapons – including irritants – is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Russian VDV airborne commander Colonel General Teplinsky (likely Russia’s finest remaining senior officer) indicated that Russia’s premier VDV troops are (per the Institute for the Study of War) “under significant pressure to conduct rapid offensive operations near Bakhmut and repel Ukrainian attacks on the east [bank of the Dnieper River (the latter being Teplinsky’s current command)].” Teplinsky emphasized that his forces are aiming to inflict casualties on the Ukrainians rather than take their positions, potentially indicating continued friction between an aggressive Putin and his more realistic commanders.
As part of Ukraine’s ongoing wartime effort to crackdown on corruption, a senior defense official was arrested for reportedly embezzling $40 million in artillery shell purchases.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski (husband of famous journalist/historian Anne Applebaum) made his first official visit to Ukraine to present an as-yet undisclosed aid package. Former European Council President and now three-time Polish Prime Minister Tusk has indicated he will pursue a strongly pro-EU and pro-Ukraine path, following some friction under the previous Law and Justice party.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are three days old.
Note: The Institute for the Study of War (my primary battlefield aggregator) has deprioritized Ukrainian General Staff statements in an effort to streamline its reporting, largely leaving Russian claimed advances uncontested, and thus leading to a greater prevalence of “Russian attacks around X possibly made gains.” More than ever, unless a claimed advance is confirmed or likely, it should be discounted.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Limited action. Russian attacks assaults on northern Synkivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Russian attacks southwest of Kreminna made marginal gains. Fighting reported south of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Significant action. Russian attacks southwest of Spirne made marginal gains. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut possibly made gains. Russian attacks west of Bakhmut possibly repelled. Russian attacks around Klishchiivka possibly made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Andriivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported southeast of Novokalynove. Fighting reported around Stepove. Russian attacks around the Avdiivka Coke Plant possibly made gains. Russian attacks southeast of Avdiivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks south of Avdiivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Pervomaiske. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian attacks southeast of Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka likely repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Russian attacks around Verbove likely repelled. Russian attacks around Robotyne likely repelled.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky, where Russian forces made marginal gains.
Daily Conclusion
According to the New York Times, Russian dictator Putin may be voicing interest in a ceasefire through intermediaries behind closed doors. It is extremely plausible that these feelers are not genuine, or are being made in Putin’s name without his knowledge.
However, it is also equally possible that Putin is interested in establishing a temporary ceasefire before the Russian federal elections in early 2024 in the hopes of giving his army time to recoup its losses before launching further offensive operations. Russian forces are badly in need of rest and reorganization, which they could put to good use shoring up defenses, training new units, rebuilding munitions stockpiles, and preparing for further attacks around Avdiivka and other places.
The Kremlin is not interested in peace, does not seek a permanent ending of hostilities. Putin and his cronies still aim to take over all of Ukraine, and to use the conflict to drive a wedge between the United States and its Allies while weakening the European Union and NATO in the hopes of reestablishing Russian autocracy over its “near abroad.” The end result of any ceasefire will be a Western disunity and uncertainty, a strengthened Russian army, and an emboldened dictator whose goals explicitly and publicly include the conquest of Ukraine and crimes against humanity, as well as further destabilization in the continent and wars of conquest.
The Kremlin is an enemy that hopes to exploit the potentially fractious nature of democracy to harm our nations and their interests. It – and any proposals it favors – should be treated as such. There will be no peace in Europe without a Russian defeat.
