Day 651
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
In another deal brokered by Qatar, Ukraine secured the release of another eight children previously deported to Russia.
Overview
Russian forces launched another large drone strike on targets across Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses continuing to intercept most of the projectiles.
The United States announced another $175 million aid package for Ukraine. Unfortunately, as the statement says, “Unless Congress acts to pass the President’s national security supplemental funding request, this will be one of the last security assistance packages we can provide Ukraine.”
Ukrainian intelligence agents shot former Ukrainian member of parliament turned Russian defector Ilya Kiva to death in Moscow Oblast, with the GUR intelligence agency saying that “a similar fate will befall other traitors to Ukraine.” A separatist lawmaker from the Luhansk so-called “People’s Republic” was also killed in a car bomb in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk possibly repelled. Fighting reported east of Kupyansk. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove repelled. Russian attacks west of Kreminna likely repelled. Russian attacks south of Kreminna likely repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Significant action. Russian attacks around Bilohorivka repelled. Russian attacks a round Spirne repelled. Russian attacks around Vesele repelled. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Russian attacks southwest of Bakhmut likely repelled. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Russian attacks around Andriivka repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Horlivka likely repelled. Russian attacks southeast of Novokalynove repelled. Ukrainian counterassaults in Stepove made marginal gains. Russian attacks around the Avdiivka Coke Plant possibly made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
Note: Today’s Daily Conclusion is a special assessment of the Russian Avdiivka Offensive, ongoing since October. If you have not already, and find this subject interesting, I recommend watching this (beginning at 20:00) recent Perun video on the subject.
Roughly two months ago, Russia launched its first major offensive action since the culmination of the Gerasimov Offensive earlier this year, targeting the fortress-city of Avdiivka that stands on the outskirts of Donetsk City, the *de facto* capital of and largest city in occupied Ukraine.
First off, it is worth noting that Avdiivka is not Bakhmut. While the city is smaller, it is more strategically valuable, possessing a rail junction, local high ground, and heavy defenses that have brought Russian advances in central Donetsk Oblast to a standstill. Moreover, it is an attractive target: sat inside a partially-surrounded bulge in the frontline and located right next to Russian forces’ primary line of supply, it is genuinely vulnerable to attack. The Russians are assaulting Avdiivka for good reason.
The Offensive began with attacks on Avdiivka’s flanks, aimed at encircling the city by taking advantages of small but vital gains made earlier in the year. These attacks were not just unsuccessful, they were outright disastrous, reminiscent of Vuhledar, with some of the largest numbers of confirmed destroyed vehicles in such a short period (over 200 in one week) and the highest Ukrainian-claimed daily casualties since the beginning of the war (1,000+/day, far more than the previous high of 700+/day claimed at Bakhmut’s peak).
This is not to say that the Offensive is or will inevitably be a total failure. There are only a couple of roads leading into Avdiivka, all of which are threatened by Russian advances around Stepove and the Coke Plant to the city’s northwest; if these roads fall, so too will the city. Moreover, Russian forces have made some gains to Avdiivka’s south and southeast, approaching the main urban core. And, in defending the city, Ukraine is taking losses – including among some of its newer and better regiments, prompting some recriminations against Ukrainian commanders.
But already, it is clear that this battle – like almost every other urban engagement thus far – is not favoring Russia. Losses are reported to be extreme, and complaints from the Russian side have highlighted enormous deficiencies in morale, supplies, and medical care. Entire Russian formations are likely being burned through every month, an unsustainable rate of attrition. Even if the city is captured, it will likely prove a Pyrrhic victory.
Nonetheless, no assessment of this operation should be sanguine. Avdiivka is an important city, one whose fall would be a genuine blow (though far from a devastating one). Russia would have its most important victory since the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in 2022, and would gain momentum. And Russian victory there is a real possibility, not a remote one.
Whether or not Ukraine can retain its hold on the fortress-city is an open question that – as always – only time can answer.
