Day 643
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Fierce weather continues to buffet southern Ukraine amidst the largest storm in the Black Sea in a century, with snow, floods, and hurricane-force winds reported in broad swathes of the region.
The wife of Lieutenant General Budanov – the head of Ukraine’s GUR intelligence agency, infamous for its numerous high-profile operations, including assassinations inside Russia (both claimed and admitted) – was reportedly poisoned alongside several other GUR employees. She is safe and recovering. While Budanov himself was likely the intended target, such incidental targeting of his family is unlikely to improve his opinion of the Kremlin.
Ukraine estimates that Russia is suffering nearly 1,000 casualties per day, largely thanks to its operations around Avdiivka. While such estimates are likely inflated and difficult to take at face value, this is substantially larger than the previous maximum of 750 per day, claimed earlier this year when Russian forces were fighting around Bakhmut, and this like-for-like comparison is a good indication of the scale and fierceness of the fighting ongoing around Avdiivka (something which will, if all goes well, receive a full analysis later this week).
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are six days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove repelled. Russian attacks west of Kreminna repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Kreminna repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Bakhmut repelled. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Russian attacks around Andriivka repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported northwest of Horlivka. Fighting reported southeast of Novokalynove. Russian attacks around Stepove repelled. Russian attacks north of Avdiivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks southeast of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks south of Avdiivka repelled. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has culminated. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Novoprokopivka.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
Note: Today’s Daily Conclusion is the second of a very belated three-part post-mortem of the Ukrainian 2023 Counteroffensive, which is widely agreed to have culminated around the end of October. This part consists of a discussion about the issue of attritional/positional warfare and claims of a “stalemate.”
As it stands, the war in Ukraine is akin to the Western Front of 1916-17: an attritional/positional phase in the middle of a conflict characterized by artillery duels and trench warfare. Crucially, despite the frontlines remaining largely stationary, those years were not a stalemate, but a back-and-forth struggle where the balance of power remained even. When two sides tug on a rope until it reaches a standstill, it is not the individual footsteps back and forth that determine the contest’s outcome, but the endurance of each side.
Which side has suffered more from this counteroffensive in terms of materiel and moral exhaustion? The counteroffensive’s impact on Ukraine was not minimal – losses (mostly at the start) were high, and some bitter recriminations regarding its failure have followed. But by most every account, Ukrainian morale remains substantially higher than their opponents, and materiel losses have remained heavily tilted in Ukraine’s favor, even moreso in key categories like artillery and aircraft. What limited territorial gains have occurred could also set the stage for future Ukrainian advances, now located closer to the Surovikin Line. Less tangibly, Ukraine’s proven ability to remain in the fight has likely hardened the resolve of many, while causing some in Russia to quietly ask whether victory can be achieved at all.
Nonetheless, Russia remains a large, committed, and dangerous opponent. Its financial, industrial, and manpower resources outstrip Ukraine’s alone, its post-Soviet weapons stockpiles – while depleting at alarming rates – remain deep, and its alliance with rogue states like North Korea and Iran have only furthered its access to vital weapons and systems. Hopes that the Russian war effort – or even Russia as a whole – will collapse are unfounded mirages, encouraging complacency where none should exist. Alone, Russia’s ability to withstand a long, grinding war of attrition is simply greater than Ukraine’s.
Much, then, rests on the West’s willingness to continue providing substantial material aid to Ukraine – a subject which will form the topic of Part 3.
