Day 641
Articles and Reporting
Another excellent video from Australian military analyst Perun, this time covering the ongoing Russian Avdiivka Offensive and concurrent Ukrainian operations along the Dnieper River, including assessments of battlefield losses and overall conflict trends. Much of what he says is in agreement with my own thoughts, as the coming Ukrainian 2023 Counteroffensive Post-Mortem and Russian Avdiivka Offensive Analysis will (hopefully soon) show.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
In retaliation for Russia’s strike on Kyiv the previous day, Ukraine launched several dozen drones at targets across western Russia. Mirroring the Russian attack, most of the Ukrainian drones appear to have been downed and dealt little to no damage. An important Russian vehicle factory in Chelyabinsk (responsible for providing many of the engines used in Russian military vehicles) was also pictured exploding, though it is unclear if this is connected or was an unrelated accident.
Polish truckers continue to protest against competition faced by Ukrainian truckers, having closed off the Polish-Ukrainian border (an effort they are potentially looking to expand). Thousands of trucks remain stuck on the border with supplies for Ukraine, which has likely resulted in some minor material shortages.
An extraordinarily intense winter storm (reportedly the worst in a century) struck much of the Black Sea basin, hitting much of southern Ukraine hard, variously resulting in large waves and blizzards depending on the location. It is unclear how badly frontline positions were or will be affected, as they lie further inland.
American-supplied M1A1 Abrams were pictured in Ukraine for the first time, joining the ranks of the other modern Western-supplied tanks in Ukrainian service.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are four days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk Russian attacks east of Kupyansk made marginal gains. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove repelled. Fighting reported south of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Fighting reported northwest of Bakhmut. Russian attacks around Klishchiivka likely repelled. Russian attacks around Andriivka likely repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported northwest of Horlivka. Russian attacks southeast of Novokalynove made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Stepove. Fighting reported around the Avdiivka Coke Plant. Russian attacks southeast of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks round Pervomaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky, where Ukrainian forces likely made gains.
Daily Conclusion
No report or assessment for today.
