Day 639
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Russia and China may be making plans to build an underwater tunnel from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, to supplement and/or replace the vulnerable Kerch Strait Bridge (which has been repeatedly hit by Ukrainian strikes) and the land routes in occupied southern Ukraine, which remain vulnerable to any further Ukrainian advances.
Russia is continuing to precipitate a minor migrant crisis along its border with NATO, having encouraged attempts by migrants to cross the border into neighboring Norway, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia.
A *BBC* investigation based on confirmed military deaths indicates that outlying Russian regions with high ethnic minority populations have suffered far higher casualty rates than the ethnically-Russian western regions. The comparisons between Moscow and St. Petersburg – which the Kremlin has taken careful steps to specifically insulate from the war – were even starker, suffering 10 (or more) times fewer casualties.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are two days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk repelled. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk likely repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove repelled. Fighting reported west of Kreminna. Ukrainian counterattacks south of Kreminna likely repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut possibly repelled. Russian attacks north of Klishchiivka made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterattacks around Klishchiivka likely repelled. Russian attacks around Andriivka possibly repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported northwest of Horlivka. Russian attacks possibly made gains southeast of Novokalynove. Russian attacks around Stepove possibly repelled. Russian attacks around the Avdiivka Coke Plant possibly made gains. Russian attacks southeast of Avdiivka likely made gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne possibly repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske likely repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka likely repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Russian attacks southeast of Mala Tokmachka made gains. Russian attacks around Verbove likely made marginal gains. Ukrainian counter attacks around Robotyne made marginal gains.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
No report or assessment for today.
