Day 636
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian drones and missiles struck Ukrainian port and civil infrastructure, including a hospital in Selydove. The intentional striking of medical facilities not being used for military purposes is a war crime.
Overview
German Minister of Defence Pistorius made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba and President Zelenskyy. His visit came immediately after a similar visit from American Secretary of Defense Austin.
During Pistorius’s visit, Germany announced a roughly $1.4 billion aid package for Ukraine, including 20,000 artillery rounds, four IRIS-T air defense systems, and anti-tank mines.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are three days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk repelled. Fighting reported east of Kupyansk. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks near Bilohorivka repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Russian attacks around Andriivka repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks around Kurdyumivka possibly repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Russian attacks northwest of Horlivka repelled. Russian attacks east of Novokalynove possibly made gains. Russian assaults on Stepove possibly made gains. Fighting reported around the Avdiivka Coke Plant. Russian attacks around Avdiivka repelled. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka likely repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky, where they possibly made marginal gains.
Daily Conclusion
I am still hoping to get a post-mortem analysis of the 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive and analysis of the ongoing Russian Avdiivka Offensive out sometime this week, but may have to further delay it to next. Apologies.
