Day 633
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
At least nine civilians were killed in the shelling of residential buildings and shopping areas in Kherson, a city which poses no threat to Russian forces. The intentional targeting of civilians is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Russian forces have upped their rate of drone and missile attacks on civil infrastructure targets (as well as some military and governmental targets) located across Ukraine in recent weeks, likely indicating the opening stages of the anticipated Russian 2023-24 winter Terror Bombing campaign.
Since its establishment in August, Ukraine’s western Black Sea corridor has facilitated the export of 4.4 million tons of cargo, including 3.2 million tons in grain, from Ukraine. Russian efforts to interdict shipments using the route continue to be largely ineffective, though one Liberian-flagged vessel was reportedly damaged by a mine.
The Netherlands indicated that it would provide Ukraine with at least an additional $2 billion in aid in 2024, part of a series of recent aid announcements made by European countries.
A Ukrainian partisan car bomb reportedly seriously wounded two senior occupation police officials of the Luhansk so-called “People’s Republic,” both from the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk likely repelled. Russian attacks west of Kreminna repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Svatove likely repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northwest of Soledar repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut possibly made gains. Russian attacks around Klishchiivka possibly repelled. Russian attacks around Andriivka repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks around Kurdyumivka likely repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported southeast of Novokalynove. Russian attacks around Stepove possibly made gains; unclear. Russian attacks towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant, immediately northwest of Avdiivka, made marginal gains. Russian attacks northeast of Avdiivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne likely repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian assaults in northwestern Marinka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Novomykhailivka.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks near Vuhledar repelled. Fighting reported south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Ukrainian counterattacks around Verbove likely repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks around Robotyne likely repelled.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
No report or assessment for today.
