Day 631
Articles and Reporting
An article from the Institute for the Study of War powerfully arguing once again that the West can – and should – help to ensure a Ukrainian victory in its war with Russia by continuing to increase the speed and scale of its deliveries of materiel to Ukraine, and noting the enormous impact that such deliveries have already had on the war thus far.
If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans in, Ukraine Can Win. Retrieved from the Institute for the Study of War.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Estonia announced that it would commit 30% of its defense budget over the course of the next four years solely to increasing the production and procurement of artillery ammunition, one of Ukraine’s most vital and badly-needed pieces of materiel. Estonia – who at one point gave away every single 155mm howitzer in its arsenal to Ukraine as part of an aid package worth 1% of its entire national GDP – criticized the EU for failing to meet its previous artillery munition pledges.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are one day old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk repelled. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk possibly made limited gains. Russian attacks west of Svatove repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Kreminna likely repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks southwest of Bakhmut repelled. Russian attacks around Klishchiivka possibly made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Andriivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Fighting reported southeast of Novokalynove. Russian attacks around Stepove possibly made gains. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne likely repelled. Russian attacks around Perovmaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Fighting reported around Novomykhailivka.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Fighting reported around Verbove. Ukrainian counterattacks around Novoprokopivka likely repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks west of Robotyne made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Kopani. Russian attacks around Pyatykhatky possibly made limited gains.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky, where Ukrainian forces made margianl gains.
Daily Conclusion
No report or assessment for today.
