Day 621
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No particular atrocities reported today.
Overview
Imagery confirmed that the Russian corvette Askold was severely damaged (likely beyond repair) by multiple Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles while in dock at the Zalyv Shipyards in Kerch.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are two days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks northeast of Kupyansk likely repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Svatove made limited gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northwest of Soledar made marginal gains. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut likely made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Fighting reported around Andriivka.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Russian attacks around Stepove possibly made gains. Fighting reported around Avdiivka. Russian attacks southwest of Avdiivka repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske repelled. Ukrainian counterattacks around Krasnohorivka possibly made limited gains. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks south of Novomykhailivka made marginal gains.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Significant action. The Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive has likely culminated. Russian attacks southwest of Huliaipole made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Verbove. Ukrainian counterattacks around Robotyne likely repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Orikhiv repelled. Russian attacks around Pyatykhatky repelled.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
Note: Today’s Daily Conclusion is a series of excerpts from the Institute for the Study of War’s daily update, recounting statements made by convicted war criminal, former Russian intelligence agent, and military analyst Girkin regarding the state of the Russian and Ukrainian war efforts. Girkin has in the past proven himself to be both pessimistic about Russia’s war effort and often prescient, owing to his military-intelligence experience. The full summary (along with discussion of several other interesting discourses amongst Russian sources) can be read here.
“Girkin argued that Russian forces will be ‘even less capable of offensive operations than they are now’ by spring 2024… the situation for Russian forces is ‘gradually deteriorating’ and that Russian forces are showcasing ‘growing weakness… despite Russia’s ‘generally successful repulsion’ of the Ukrainian offensive over the summer and fall of 2023.”
“Girkin argued that Russian forces were not only unable to start broad offensive operations at the beginning of the fall season but were also unable to complete even limited offensive operations… Russian forces failed to advance in the Kupyansk direction and are now impaled in battles on ‘the distant approaches to the city,’ while also failing to change the situation in the Lyman direction… the Avdiivka offensive demonstrated Russian forces’ inability ‘to achieve superiority’ [despite substantial preparations and forces].”
“Girkin suggested that Russian efforts to repel [further Ukrainian attacks] will likely degrade Russian offensive and defensive potential by spring 2024… Russian forces will continue to be ‘incapable of any broad offensive actions’ even if Ukrainian forces are unable to ‘knock out’ Russian frontline units… [he] fears that Ukrainian forces may be successful in breaking Russian forces that have already been exhausted by months of combat.”
“Girkin implied that additional Western military aid to Ukraine and the lack of mobilization in Russia could allow Ukraine to end positional [attritional/trench] warfare and conduct successful offensive operations in 2024… [he] implied that Ukrainian forces would continue to devastate the Russian rear over the winter as Russian forces continued to push for limited offensive operations… Girkin also claimed that Ukraine currently has superiority in manpower over Russian forces… and that the Kremlin is unlikely to call up mobilization before spring 2024 due to upcoming presidential elections… [and that] Russia has exhausted the recruitment potential for new contract servicemen and volunteers.”
