Day 5
Please Note: Early editions of the Ukraine Daily War Update may not fit later formatting standards, and their primary purpose is to act as an archive for my coverage of the conflict. Some editing is done to the original text to make it more formal and readable, but no details are altered, and incorrect claims are noted as often as possible.
Overview
The West
Across the world, hundreds of thousands of people are protesting the invasion in national capitals and major cities, with over 100,000 estimated to have turned out in Berlin alone.
Nearly (and possibly over at this point) half a million Ukrainians have fled across the borders into neighboring NATO countries and Moldova.
Many nations are increasing their commitments of humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, including hundreds of millions of dollars in financial assistance and plane-loads of defensive equipment and basic supplies.
The EU has begun to totally close off its airspace to Russian flights, and the West is forming a committee to track and target all assets held by Russian oligarchs.
Turkey is signaling that it may cut close the Bosporus Strait to Russian warships, effectively cutting Russia off from the Mediterranean and preventing them from moving any more naval assets to the Black Sea.
There is talk of the European Union potentially providing Ukraine with fighter jets. This is serious hardware and, aside from helping Ukraine contest the skies, it is not something one gives away unless they believe it will be worthwhile.-
A Russian commercial aircraft violated North American airspace after Russian airlines were banned. This is early days yet and may have been a purposefully provocative action. If so, expect to see NATO jets scrambled towards airliners as Russia purposefully places its civilians in harm’s way as Putin hopes he can goad NATO fighters into shooting down planes violating their airspace.
In Japan, some have begun openly discussing whether the United States should be permitted to station nuclear weapons on Japanese soil for the purposes of deterring attack. Japan has a long-running border dispute with Russia and is increasingly wary of China, who has backed Russia, and is far from unusual – it is common for many US allies to operate under the American nuclear umbrella.
The United States has approved the direct transfer of Stinger missiles to Ukraine, which have proven potent against close support aircraft and helicopters, joining our European Allies in providing man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
Russia
In Russia, bank runs are increasing at an alarming (for the Russians, anyways) rate. Lines of dozens of people waiting outside of ATMs trying to withdraw money have become emblematic of a financial system suddenly starved for cash. The Russian ruble has lost almost half of its value in less than a week, the Russian stock market has nose-dived, and large sectors of Russia’s international assets have been seized or frozen. Russia has been forced to more than double its interest rate from 9.5% to 20%, an incredible jump – for reference, rumors that the United States Federal Reserve would increase interest rates from 0% to about 0.5% spooked the American stock market. Russia has also been forced to release billions in reserves to stabilize the situation. Cut off from the global financial system, possessing a stagnant economy heavily reliant on petroleum revenues, the results are likely to be “cataclysmic,” with Russia “staring into an abyss of uncertainty.”¹
In the meantime, the European Union and the United States continue to increase sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
Russia’s isolation in sports also continues. FIFA is allowing Russians to continue playing so long as they do not play under the name “Russia,” play the national anthem, or bare any Russian flags (similar to the Olympics’ rules). Yet some of Russia’s opponents are refusing to accept even these prohibitions as too tame, with multiple countries already declaring that they will not play matches against Russia’s team no matter the limits.
Ukraine
In what is being seen as a major diplomatic victory for Ukraine, the Russians have agreed to hold talks at a neutral location without preconditions. Previously, the Russian demand was for talks to be held in Russian-allied Belarus and that Ukraine had to disarm itself before talks could begin.²
According to the Ukrainian government, at least 25,000 rifles have been distributed to volunteers in the Kyiv region alone, with the numbers continually increasing.
Multiple videos have surfaced online showing Ukrainian farmers using trucks and tractors to tow away abandoned Russian vehicles. That’s what you get for running out of fuel.
President Zelenskyy’s approval rating has predictably shot up north of 90%, with only 5% disapproving. This likely doubles as a useful measure of how many Ukrainians actually welcome Russia’s invasion – a tiny minority, the exact opposite of what the Kremlin claims.
Various social media services have shut down access in Ukraine, seemingly for geolocation reasons. It is possible they are still sharing this data with Western intelligence, but this is just a wild guess.
President Zelenskyy has also committed to vastly increasing the pay of Ukrainian soldiers as a thanks for their wartime commitment and sacrifice. Due to the collapse of the Ukrainian economy, much of that additional pay is likely coming straight from Western wallets, a valuable contribution.
A Ukrainian website created to allow Russian families to check if their sons have been killed, captured, or wounded has likely been taken down by Russia. While it is clearly an attempt to demoralize the enemy, Ukraine has legitimately attempted to do a better job informing Russian families of the fates of their conscript-sons than the government they fight for.
Other
The United Nations will be gather for an emergency General Assembly meeting for the first time in four decades. Russia will likely veto whatever comes up for vote in the executive Security Council, but not before countries can weigh in on its actions. At least 50 UN member-states have already publicly accused Russia of abusing its veto power during the war, a rare and substantial rebuke.
India continues to abstain from criticizing Russia, an extremely aggravating situation but not entirely unexpected given they are not a full Western ally and still retain strong defense industry ties to Russia.
Singapore, in a very unusual move, has acted in tandem with Western powers to sanction Russia and enact export controls (though these are mostly symbolic).
Battlefield Updates
Videos abound of destroyed columns of Russian armor, with Russian losses increasingly appearing to be severe as forward columns have attempted to push deep into Ukraine with limited support and supply.
The Ukrainians have managed to conduct aerial drone strikes on Russian forces, even hitting air defense systems.
There has been intense fighting in several of Ukraine’s cities, with the Russians beginning to besiege many of the larger urban areas they’ve reached. No major cities have yet fallen, but the danger of them being encircled remains. Across Ukraine, the situation remains grim, but the Russians are taking serious losses in every urban battle, even when only engaging TDF. However, it is likely that more small cities will begin to fall in the coming days and that the Ukrainians will experience reverses.
Kyiv may be surrounded with Ukrainian leadership and significant regular army/volunteer elements inside.³ Kyiv’s mayor claims this is disinformation, but it is hard to be sure right now. Regardless, the Russians are preparing for a major assault on the city, likely to begin within the next 24 hours. Columns of Russian and Chechen troops have been spotted heading towards the capital, reportedly 20 miles long, backed up by artillery and heavy armor, making this a far more serious threat for the capital than previous attacks. It seems likely that Ukraine will fight to keep the south of the city open, but that may take time and require moving up units from the west and east. It is now an open question of whether the city will fall and whether relief will arrive.
A Russian offensive into Kharkiv appears to have been repulsed with significant Russian losses. The push reportedly included a large Russian spetsnaz complement, while most of the defending seems to have been done by Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (essentially civilians with guns). Astoundingly, the loss ratio may even have been in favor of the Ukrainians, meaning Ukrainian civilians likely repulsed a dedicated mechanized assault by Russian special forces while sustaining fewer casualties. Videos of Russian rocket fire indiscriminately striking residential high-rises in Kharkiv have proliferated, and it is clear the Russians are resorting to a heavier use of bombardment.
Ukrainian forces in the east along the post-2015 Line of Contact still face the risk of being cut off by advancing Russian forces from the southwest and northeast, with Russian columns heading towards Dnipro.⁴
The city of Berdyansk, in southern Ukraine, has fallen to Russian forces. The situation in the south is growing grimmer as Russia continues to reinforce its forces and advance.
It is widely believed that the Russians, frustrated by a lack of progress across Ukraine and the constant stiff resistance, will soon resort to indiscriminate artillery attacks and airstrikes on populated centers. If Kyiv does not fall quickly, expect it to see some of the first fruits of that change.⁵
Daily Conclusion
I do not know how this war will end, and I fear for the worst, but there is no scenario – victory or defeat – where this war does not end with the annihilation of Russia’s credibility as a major military power.
In fact, this perception is becoming so bad that I am becoming worried that Putin may hope to claw back some measure of credibility by prosecuting this war to the end with every resource he has available, because failure to achieve a victory in Ukraine is tantamount to declaring Russia’s military inoperable.⁶
Ukraine is still showing no signs of flagging, with resistance resolute, universal, and totally committed. Civilians have been standing in the roads and walking back tanks, stealing abandoned vehicles, and arming themselves with rifles and molotoves to defend their cities. Russian soldiers are running short of supplies, failing to adhere to their own doctrine, experiencing serious losses in manpower and equipment, and reportedly suffer from widespread low morale.
Nonetheless, despite materiel support pouring in from the West, Russia still possesses superior numbers and resources. The outlook for Ukraine is still and will continue to be grim – it still remains very likely that Ukraine will be defeated in the field. Ukrainian victory in a long-lasting conventional war is unlikely, and it does not seem that a massive injection of Western equipment will change that calculus. But Ukraine might now have a fighting chance, and that is a hell of a lot better than what any analysts were projecting just days ago.
All in all, there appears to be no chance that Putin will achieve the lightning fast breakthrough victory that he was seeking. Regardless of the outcome, unless a settlement is reached, it seems this will be a long and bloody war. Were Putin smart, he would use the peace talks as an opportunity to squeeze some limited concessions out of Ukraine, declare victory, and go home. The odds, however, are that this will not happen – judging from historical precedent, peace talks will not begin in earnest until a) Kyiv has fallen or b) it has become clear that Kyiv will not fall.⁷
Slava Ukraini!
1 – Many of the hopes about Russian economic collapse proved to be overblown. While it never seemed likely that enormous damage would be done to the Russian economy, the Russian central bank and its staff reacted more effectively to the flood of Western sanctions than initially anticipated, and scenes such as this would quickly come to an end.
2 – This may seem strange in hindsight, but at the time it was as yet unclear whether or not the Russians were serious about negotiating and having talks held in Turkey rather than Minsk was clearly beneficial to Ukraine, particularly given the desperation of the opening week.
3 – Reports of Kyiv being encircled turned out to be premature. Advance Russian elements made it to several locations where, had they not been few in number and unsupported, might have allowed them to properly besiege the city, but they would be quickly ejected from these positions, securing the city’s lines of communication.
4 – While the Russians almost certainly hoped to take Dnipro, no such columns would ever get close to the central city, all bogging down far sooner.
5 – This proved to be correct.
6 – In hindsight, this fear appears to have been prescient.
7 – Another prescient prediction.
