Day 4
Please Note: Early editions of the Ukraine Daily War Update may not fit later formatting standards, and their primary purpose is to act as an archive for my coverage of the conflict. Some editing is done to the original text to make it more formal and readable, but no details are altered, and incorrect claims are noted as often as possible.
Overview
The West
Germany is sending one thousand anti-tank and 500 anti-air missiles (likely Javelins and Stingers or equivalents) to Ukraine, having finally remembered that wars are fought with weapons and not helmets.¹ The Netherlands has pledged 200 Stringer missiles, with other defense materiel already on the way, while the Czech Republic is sending over $8.5 million worth of weapons. Materiel from Lithuania has reportedly already crossed the border. Other nations continue to send supplies, including Greece – formerly one of the most pro-Russia countries in NATO – who are outraged by the killing of 10 Greek civilians in a bombing near Mariupol.
Germany has pledged to almost double its defense spending to 100 billion Euros, bringing it above NATO’s goal of 2% GDP for the first time in decades. All it took was multiple wars in Europe, three decades of their allies complaining, and the atrophying of their military.²
Other European nations are boycotting Russian goods, disconnecting themselves from Russian banks and investments, closing off their airspace, and shipping trainloads of military supplies east to Ukraine.
The European Union is considering banning Russian flights, which would effectively cut Russian travel off from the continent.
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United Stats are all planning on sanctioning the shipment of high tech materials to Russia, likely leading to AMD and Intel’s announcement that they will cease shipping processors to Russia.
Britain has committed to supporting any UK nationals that choose to fight for Ukraine, an extremely rare move for a host of reasons.
Ukraine
Ukraine has set up a hotline for Russian families to call and find out if their relatives have been killed, injured, or taken prisoner, and it has reportedly been receiving hundreds of calls. One of the most majestic pieces of wartime PR ever seen.
As the invasion rages on the frontiers, thousands of Ukrainian women across the country are following the government’s directive and preparing Molotov cocktails (with videos already spreading of them being used) as tens of thousands of men are picking up rifles and enlisting for service.
There have been reports of Ukrainian civilians taking down and/or replacing road signs to confuse the Russians, though I am not sure how much it matters given that I assume most Russian units have GLONASS access.
Per the BBC, Ukraine now claims to have killed 4,300 Russian soldiers, shot down 27 planes and 26 helicopters, knocked out 146 tanks and 706 armored fighting vehicles, and destroyed over 50 artillery pieces. But again, take any claims like this with a fistful of salt.
Battlefield Updates
The situation in Ukraine is growing grimmer as the Russians appear to be resorting to the use of heavier weapons and indiscriminate bombing. This will likely increase as Ukrainian resistance grows increasingly dug-in and sanctions cut Russia off from the manufacture of guided munitions.³
Heavy fighting is reported in Kyiv. The Russians have still failed to envelop and isolate the capital, but they are bringing up large amounts of armor to support an assault.
Control of a couple of smaller cities – such as Chernihiv and Sumy – seems to be changing hands by the day, but all are currently back under Ukrainian control.
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, continues to hold out against repeated Russian assaults.
Heavy fighting in the southwest and Russian advances in the southeast are threatening to leave Ukrainian Army troops on the Line of Control surrounded. If positions cannot be held that safeguard the units’ flanks, the Ukrainians will likely be forced to fall back to Dnipro.
Daily Conclusion
The Russian advance into Ukraine continues to slow as the war enters its fourth day. The Russians have faced far stiffer resistance than they or anyone in the West seemingly expected, and have been greatly delayed or even pushed back from their objectives in many places. In general, major cities are proving so difficult to capture that (for the most part) the Russians are bypassing them where they can.
Failure to equip their troops with enough fuel and food has left units scavenging from Ukrainian civilians for supplies or halted on the streets. Over half of Russia’s military capacity is now committed to the fight, further constraining their logistics system.
Odds are that it will not be enough to win the invasion here and now, but it is giving the Ukrainians time to prepare, their volunteers time to train, and weapons time to speed in from the West. It is also an immense embarrassment for the Russian army, whose doctrine is supposed to be all about moving quickly and bypassing strongpoints before crushing resistance with heavy armor.⁴
On Day 4 of the invasion, as weapons and supplies begin to pour in from every corner of the West, Russian units still have yet to achieve Day 1 objectives. That does not mean we should get too optimistic – we will start seeing losses and reverses for the Ukrainians soon. But they will continue to resist beyond what any intelligence assessments thought possible.
Glory to Ukraine.⁵
1 – Germany rather infamously offered Ukraine 5,000 helmets (which did not arrive by the start of the invasion) when it requested military aid prior to the conflict and blocked several NATO nations from sending old artillery and other weaponry to Ukraine.
2 – Over 300 days into the war as of the time of writing and Germany appears to have either walked back or substantially scaled down this pledge.
3 – I am not particularly proud of this prediction – it was obvious and quite apparent – but it was prescient.
4 – Far from the best or a terribly accurate description of Russian deep battle doctrine as written, but the gist is at least there.
5 – This marks my first use of the (translated) phrase “Slava Ukraini!”
