Day 3
Please Note:Β Early editions of the Ukraine Daily War Update may not fit later formatting standards, and their primary purpose is to act as an archive for my coverage of the conflict. Some editing is done to the original text to make it more formal and readable, but no details are altered, and incorrect claims are noted as often as possible.
War Crimes
Multiple civilian ships, including Japanese and Moldovan flagged freighters, have reportedly been struck in the Black Sea by Russian forces.
According to Western intel, the invasion is not going as swiftly as planned, and Russia will likely resort to the usual Russian urban warfare tactics if it cannot overrun Kyiv and other cities. This typically means dropping even the pretense for concern over civilians casualties and mass artillery strikes.
A Ukrainian apartment building in Kyiv was struck by a missile that has destroyed several apartments, with casualties unknown.
Overview
The West
Western governments are adopting increasingly fierce economic measures. Germany’s finance minister has declared their country’s willingness to cutting Russia off from the international SWIFT banking communications network, with preparations reportedly nearly complete by the end of the day, while many Western companies (especially automotive companies) have halted production inside Russia.
Lithuania is reportedly supplying Ukraine with rifles, ammunition, body armor, and helmets.Β The Netherlands will supply 200 air defense missiles (Stingers?) to Ukraine. The Czechs are pledging $8.6 million in weapons. France has promised arms. Almost every country in NATO has agreed to send some form of humanitarian and/or lethal aid to Ukraine. Turkey, having remembered it is a part of NATO, will close the Bosporus to Russian warships. Meanwhile, the 5,000 helmets that Germany offered to provide to Ukraine – after denying NATO allies the right to send artillery systems to Ukraine – still have not arrived.
The United States is requesting $10 billion for force deployments to Europe as well as humanitarian aid and security assistance to Ukraine. That had better include billions for putting every Javelin missile and weapon system we can throw at the Ukrainians onto trains in Europe and shipping them to Lviv, but time will tell.
Over the last three days, protests have been held in almost every major world capital in favor of Ukraine, including Washington, D.C., London, Tokyo, Berlin, Paris, and more.
Russia
Russian dictator Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have bene sanctioned and both men are banned from traveling to the United States (though not yet the European Union, so that negotiations can still be held), both largely symbolic measures.
Russian media has been banned from referring to Russia’s declaration of war, subsequent attack, and invasion of Ukraine as an “attack, invasion, or declaration of war,” and face fines of up to 5 million rubles.
After assisting Kazakhstan in crushing anti-government protests, Kazakhstan has denied a Russian request to deploy troops to Ukraine. Russia is forgetting that you are supposed to gather your allies before invading.
This whole process is simply astonishing. Civilian advisors to the Kremlin were reportedly against intervening, one of whom had spoken out publicly; members of the Russian Foreign Ministry was reportedly dismayed by the invasion; and not even Russian allies are willing to support it. We are witnessing a great power transform itself into a pariah state.
Ukraine
50,000+ people at least have already fled from Ukraine, and the United Nations is revising its numbers upwards to project at least 5 million leaving the country. Almost all of those who have left are women and children, with men of fighting age leaving them behind and heading for the front.
President Zelenskyy has called for peace talks with Putin, but it is uncertain what the potential terms of such talks would be. The Russians have agreed to at least some sort of talks with Zelenskyy’s government in Minsk, Belarus.
Hundreds of Ukrainian and Russian servicemen have been killed, though that is a low estimate, with at least dozens more civilians killed (though numbers are hard to confirm).
Multiple members of Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, have armed themselves and joined up with their units, including former President Poroshenko.
Two IL76 transport aircraft carrying hundreds of Russian paratroopers were reportedly downed by Ukrainian aircraft/air defense systems, with the United States appearing to confirm the downing of the aircraft,ΒΉ and the previously reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian airbase that destroyed Russian aircraft appears to be confirmed.Β²
When the United States offered to get Zelenskyy out of Kyiv at the beginning of the invasion, his response was reportedly,Β “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
While Russia may be forced to draft doctors to handle military casualties, Ukraine has (rather amusingly) called on the Red Cross to remove Russian bodies from Ukraine as there are so many, quite an underhanded “**** you” at Russia.
Resistance to the invasion is strong, and is alive and well among even Ukrainian residents in occupied regions of the country:
"What the f.k are you doing here? I am Russian too, but I live in this state. You have your country, we have ours. Don't you have problems in your country to solve? Are you all rich there, as in the Emirates? You're just puppets"
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 26, 2022
Love this gradpa in Melitopol, Zaporizhia region https://t.co/r0VZDsxa4P
Battlefield Updates
The northwestern city of Lviv has reportedly repelled attacks by Russian paratroopers – really is just a bad week for Russian airborne troops.
Kyiv is reportedly being reinforced by multiple regular Ukrainian Army elements, and thousands of civilian fighters are armed and patrolling the streets, taking up positions in and around the capital.
Nonetheless, the assault on Kyiv has begun. Heavy fighting has begun on the northeast side of the city on the east side of the Dnieper. Artillery is being fired at and from the city as advances are made from the northwest. Ukrainian forces continue to destroy infrastructure and knock out bridges to slow the Russian advance. Heavy fighting is beginning to be reported in the city. Heavy fighting is apparently concentrated south of Kyiv, though the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims that the situation in the suburbs is stable and that the Russians have yet to make any major advances into the capital. The United Kingdom says that most of the fighting near Kyiv is being done by Russian spetsnaz, as the Russian armored columns that were meant to capture the city are being stymied by Ukrainian resistance and are as yet unable to reach it.
The city of Chernihiv in northeastern Ukraine is blockaded.Β Heavy fighting continues in Sumy, northeastern Ukraine. The Russian offensive in the northeast seems to have been halted as Russian army units experience further logistics breakdowns.
The Line of Contact in the east continues to hold and the Russians seem to have made little in the way of advances there.
The city of Melitopol in the southeast may or may not have been taken by the Russians. The Russian Defense Ministry is saying they captured it, while the Ukrainians are disputing it.Β There has been heavy fighting there and repeated missile strikes, and it is possible that only part of the city was seized, but the news is not 100% confirmed yet.
Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol, southeastern Ukraine. Russia likely landed more troops on Ukraine’s southern shores.
Heavy fighting continues in Kherson, southwestern Ukraine. The Ukrainians have repulsed a Russian attacks towards Mykolaiv.
Daily Conclusion
With multiple failed assaults on several cities in the north, east, and south of the country, Russian forces are being forced to bypass and surround rather than capture major population centers. While this does not speak for long-term Ukrainian success, the Russians are clearly suffering worse than they anticipated.
There is a growing sense that this war has become do or die for Putin and his regime. Having placed so much emphasis on Russia’s military prowess, and after so long telling everyone that Ukrainians were a part of Russia and that it was purely historical accident that the two were separated, failure is not an option.
But it’s not really clear whether success is an option, either. Even if he managed to defeat Ukraine, it is a country of 40 million, and the second-largest by area in Europe. Any insurgency would bleed him dry of resources and Russian lives. Ukraine claims that 3,500 Russian soldiers have been killed so far; even if these numbers are inflated or inaccurate, it’s almost certainly in the thousands range. And these are fatalities, not casualties – even Afghanistan only killed 10,000 Soviets.
It is the third day of the invasion, and no major population centers have yet fallen to the Russians. Ukrainian civilian and military leadership appears to be standing strong, and staying in Kyiv, with Zelenskyy himself – who has transitioned seamlessly from comedian to badass – broadcasting from within the capital:
ΠΠ΅ Π²ΡΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΠΉΠΊΠ°ΠΌ. pic.twitter.com/wiLqmCuz1p
— ΠΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΈΡ ΠΠ΅Π»Π΅Π½ΡΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ (@ZelenskyyUa) February 26, 2022
"There's a lot of fake news that I'm calling on the army to put down its arms and evacuate. Here's how it is: we are not putting down any arms. We will protect our country, because our weapons are our truth. The truth is that this is our land, our children, and we will protect them all. That is it. That is what I wanted to tell you. Glory to Ukraine.
However, it must be remembered that Russia was better prepared and is better armed for this invasion than Ukraine. Ukrainian casualties will, if we are lucky, be at least as high as Russia’s.Β³
1 – This appears to have been a false claim and visual evidence never confirmed the downing of large Russian transport aircraft. However, it is emblematic of the Russians’ inability to dominate Ukraine’s airspace during and after the initial stages of the invasion.
2 – It is unclear what, precisely, this referred to, and it is unlikely it took place. The “confirmation” likely came from Ukrainian official sources.
3 – This turned out to be largely true in the early stages of the war, but loss rates tipped further and further in favor of Ukraine as the war progressed.
