Day 2
Please Note: Early editions of the Ukraine Daily War Update may not fit later formatting standards, and their primary purpose is to act as an archive for my coverage of the conflict. Some editing is done to the original text to make it more formal and readable, but no details are altered, and incorrect claims are noted as often as possible.
What a thing it is, to wake up with the need to catch up on a major military conflict.
Just a quick reminder, as the usual suspects are spouting the usual stupidity: this is a war of aggression by an authoritarian Russia on a free and democratic Ukraine. There is quite literally under no circumstances any redeeming quality to this invasion or any truth to the supposed “provocations” against Russia. Every single crisis, event, and attack was consciously manufactured by the Russians over a period of months for the sole purpose of igniting a war of conquest in Europe.
War Crimes
Russian soldiers reportedly began firing at Ukrainian civilians in the streets, an unsurprising development and one that is likely to become more common as the war turns into insurgency.¹
Overview
The West
Western nations and American allies across the globe are preparing and expanding sanctions on a scale never before seen, and the United States is (finally) at least mulling slamming Russian infrastructure with cyberattacks.²
The United Kingdom has been early in announcing major elements of its sanctions package on Russia and Belarus, but expect them to be broadly applicable to the wider Western response:
- Effective banning of Russians and Belarusians from the British financial system and the use of their assets.
- Russian airline Aeroflot banned from landing in the UK.
- Freezing and possible seizing of the assets of Kremlin cronies.
- Cessation of high-tech and vital industrial exports.
Democracies in all pats of the globe are also beginning to ramp up sanctions on Russia, publicly dismissing Russia’s narrative, and weighing the expulsion of Russian diplomatic staff. Most importantly, US allies in the west are cooperating deeply on financial sanctions while US allies in the east seem to be pursuing export controls on high-tech and high-value products.
But sanctions won’t stop the Russians. It was never going to stop the Russians. The only thing that would have stopped Putin was an ironclad commitment to militarily defend Ukraine if it was attacked, but the opportunity for that passed several months ago, and the appetite for it was limited.
The point of sanctions was to make it clear that there would be consequences for any attack amidst a glimmer of hope that Putin might back down. But as much as an emphasis as the news placed on deterrence, that was never really the goal.
Something that has been brought up repeatedly by analysts and which I immediately identified as the most probable sign of the war’s inevitability was the movement of blood supplies to Russian units on the frontlines. From the moment those supplies were moved, the likelihood of sanctions deterring Russia was highly limited.
And as much as people like to complain about the United States’s foreign policy and try to stealthily advocate for a return to isolationism (as if they’re being subtle), this is the perfect example of why we exist on the world stage. There are half a dozen countries in Europe that would be staring down the same barrel if NATO didn’t exist. There are dozens of countries across the world who live without fear of their neighbors because everyone assumes that the days of redrawing borders by force are over. This is the system that we are guaranteeing and have been guaranteeing for decades.
Because there are ****s all over the world like Putin who see freedom their borders and despise those people whose only crime is not answering to them.
Russia
In Moscow and many of Russia’s large cities, thousands of demonstrators have turned out to protest the war, and many of Russia’s important non-political public figures have openly criticized the conflict. Hundreds of Russians have been arrested.
According to British intel, Russia has likely not achieved the goals it set for the first day of its offensive. Ukrainian resistance is fiercer than the Russians anticipated.
Reports have indicated that Russia has not deployed its full military complement, probably saving reserves to rotate out damaged units and for later occupation forces.³ Odds are they will have to deploy some of those formations earlier than anticipated.
Ukraine
100,000 Ukrainians have reportedly already left their homes, though the real number is likely higher. 4,000 at least have crossed into nearby Moldova, which has opened its border and declared its willingness to help all refugees. The United States and Poland continue to expand refugee centers and border points on the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Hundreds are already confirmed dead, though the real number is once again likely much higher. Russian attacks have struck residential areas, houses, hospitals, and both military and civilian airfields. Hospitals in Ukraine have reported being bombed, and those who are not in need of immediate medical attention are being asked to clear out of beds in preparation for mass casualties.
All men of fighting age in Ukraine have been banned from leaving the country, conscription efforts appear to be intensifying for obvious reasons. At least 1,000 Ukrainians reportedly volunteered for military service on the first day of combat in the city of Lviv alone. Nearly 20,000 rifles have been distributed to Ukrainians willing to fight around Kyiv alone, with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov saying that more “modern” (i.e. provided by the West) arms will soon be coming.
According to President Zelenskyy, Russian infiltration groups are operating in Kyiv, and (in line with American intel), he is Priority Target #1 for the Russians – because the first step to denazifying Ukraine is to kill a Ukrainian Jew. Zelenskyy’s family is reportedly Priority Target #2.
Ukrainian forces reportedly engaged these infiltration groups, resulting in light infantry skirmishing in the city. The Ukrainian government has yet to leave the capital, and multiple Ukrainian lawmakers have declared their willingness to fight if needed. The government is warning residents in northern Kyiv Oblast to stay in their homes and/or prepare Molotov cocktails.
Stories are being passed around of a Ukrainian pilot nicknamed “the Ghost of Kyiv,” who reportedly downed six Russian aircraft, making them an ace. Utterly impossible to say whether or not this is true, but either way, I like the name.⁴ More importantly, it underscores the fact that Russia has taken significant – and in some ways surprising – aerial losses so far.
By the end of the day, Ukraine claims to have inflicted roughly 1,000 casualties on Russian forces, destroyed 30 APCs/IFVs/MBTs, and downed around 15 aircraft. These claims are impossible to verify, but the vehicles destroyed seems likely given evidence on the ground, and the number of aircraft show down sounds about right.
Vignettes
Sviatoslav and Yaryna
This is Sviatoslav Fursin and Yaryna Arieva, two Ukrainians who got married in Kyiv as air raid sirens sounded off in the capital.
The day after their marriage, they intend to join the Ukrainian reserves and fight. Their honeymoon will likely be a combat deployment.⁵
"Russian warship..."
Here is the audio of the Snake Island encounter between Russian and Ukrainian navy vessels translated to English.
— KnowNothing (@KnowNothingTV) February 25, 2022
May the 13 brave Ukrainian heroes rest in power.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/3ls1r4ynAK
One of the most famous incidents of the war. Though the heroes of Snake Island did not die, their famous refrain “Russian warship, go fuck yourself,” and Zelenskyy’s “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” would become instantly famous and are strongly associated with the war.
Other
Spontaneous protests have broken out in many world capitals in favor of Ukraine.
The International Olympic Committee has condemned Russia for violating the Olympic Truce, a tradition going back to the Games’ origins in Ancient Greece where all conflict is meant to cease between participants during the games’ duration.
The United Nations Security Council is also meeting to vote on condemning Russia’s invasion, ironic given Russia is currently the Council’s chair. The measure is widely expected to fail because Russia will veto it, but the degree to which it stands alone will emphasize Russia’s status as a pariah state.
Battlefield Updates
Russian forces continue to advance and the Ukrainians continue to resist.⁶
Kyiv’s Hostomel Airport has been seized by Russian airborne troops as Russian helicopters fly (and are shot down) over the city, and a fierce battle is being waged there as Ukrainian forces attempt to retake the airport. Reports indicate that fighting is still ongoing but that Ukrainian forces may have recaptured the airfield. To be clear, this is an airfield near Kyiv but not in it which could be used to launch attacks or bring in supplies, so retaining it is important.
Speaking of Kyiv, Russian forces continue to advance southwards from Belarus towards the capital, a city of millions, and may have reached the city’s outskirts. At least one Russian jet was likely downed over Kyiv, and Russian military units are around 20 miles from the capital. Much of the damage to Russian air forces is reportedly from missiles provided within the last month by Western powers (mostly Stingers).
The United States is saying that Russia’s likely aim is to encircle the capital city, though whether or not they can do that remains to be seen. If they succeed, it will mean the trapping of over a million, likely over two million civilians in what will instantly become the most dangerous place on Earth. Ukrainian forces are blowing bridges leading to Kyiv in the hopes of delaying the movement of Russian tanks before withdrawing towards the city itself.
Chernobyl, in Obolonskyi Raion north of Kyiv, has been seized by Russian forces; damage to the reactor housing is possible but the situation is unknown.
Fighting in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city located right on the border with Russia, continues to be intense, but the Ukrainians hold. How long that can last is very uncertain.
The onslaught in the Donbas continues, with heavy fighting everywhere east of the Dnieper. Fighting has begun in Mariupol. Ukrainian forces, seemingly at great loss, have repelled Russian advances on the southwestern city of Kherson as htye tried to move over the Antonviskyii Bridge and into the city. Fighting has been reported in Odesa.⁷
Daily Conclusion
[In response to another’s comment “I don’t know what to make of it all. It shouldn’t be happening… so many dead, and for what?”]
Nothing.
That’s the best part.
That’s the key.
That’s the whole fucking shebang.
Nothing. It’s all for nothing.
There is no gain, there is no positive, there is no reason for this. There is literally not a single justification on earth legitimizing this invasion. There is only the seeking of power and the killing of innocents to make a dictator feel better about himself.
Thousands of soldiers will die, tens of thousands of innocents will be murdered, hundreds of thousands of refugees will be created, and millions of lives will be ruined.
And it’s all for nothing.
Just… nothing.
And at this point, one man’s death – even Putin’s – would not accomplish enough. Russia needs a revolution, a fundamental reordering of its broken, corrupt, and increasingly authoritarian society.
If by some miracle, some amazing miracle, we get a true Miracle on the Dnieper, and the Ukrainians hold off or even push back the Russian advance, maybe there’ll be a push for Putin’s removal.
[In response to another’s comment, “Russia has quite the numbers advantage, they can just outlast Ukrainian forces.”]
The thing is, that is an open question. Can they outlast the Ukrainians? Supporting the war in eastern Ukraine was already unpopular. Sure, on a mechanical level, Russia – with far more troops and 3x the population – can outlast Ukraine. But is it willing to pay the high price in blood the Ukrainians might be able to inflict? This is what I mean by a miracle on the Dnieper.
I think, feasibly, if the Ukrainians can make every mile of road to the Dnieper as bloody as possible, and force the Russians to leave cities unsuppressed and filled with insurgents, eastern Ukraine could turn into a bloody wound. If they can stop the advance in the south, the Ukrainians might be able to regroup west of the Dnieper. And with a large part of Ukraine’s population centered in the west, and the West quite willing to throw millions of dollars of weapons their way, this could turn into a grinding slog for the Russians.
But that is an open question. And in many ways, its answer is entirely reliant on how slow and miserable the Ukrainians can make this first week.⁸
1 – I was a noted “doomer” at the beginning of the conflict and, like many others, assumed Russia would achieve a swift decapitation victory, forcing the Ukrainians to resort to insurgency. Fortunately, I was very, very wrong.
2 – Whether or not this actually occurred is dubious, if technically possible. Around Day 300, the scope of United States cyber-support for Ukraine became more clear, revealing that it was substantial and widely successful, but most of it appears to have been defensive in nature.
3 – This turned out to be an over-estimation of the Russian military’s planning and competence. Rosgvardia and other occupation troops were sent in with the first wave of the invasion, and Russia’s remaining units were left behind at their bases not to be used as reserves but because it was believed that victory would be swift and total with the force already amassed.
4 – My skepticism was well-rewarded, as the Ghost of Kyiv has turned out to be this war’s most famous urban legend.
5 – I have no information on what happened to these two, whether they made it into the military and whether they made it through the fighting in Kyiv. I think of them often – it remains, to me, one of the most poignant, heart-wrenching moments of the war.
6 – As will later be made official, military updates will be organized in a clockwise manner centered on Dnipro, beginning in the northwest and ending in the southwest.
7 – I am unsure where this particular report came from (at the time I was relying almost entirely on BBC, CNN, and NBC live feeds as well as Reuters articles), but regardless, it turned out to be false.
8 – This was a surprisingly optimistic and, barring the clear belief that Russia’s advanced elements would likely make it to the Dnieper, prescient assessment of the course of the early war.
