Day 1
Please Note: Early editions of the Ukraine Daily War Update may not fit later formatting standards, and their primary purpose is to act as an archive for my coverage of the conflict. Some editing is done to the original text to make it more formal and readable, but no details are altered, and incorrect claims are noted as often as possible. However, the first day of the war is as close to unedited as possible in order to preserve my initial reactions to the war. Profanity is largely edited out of future installments and, once the reports become more formalized, is dropped entirely in favor of a more professional tone.
Initial Commentary
“OH COOL, GUESS I WAS TOO BUSY BUILDING/DISASSEMBLING 3 [COMPUTERS] TO MISS THE BIGGEST FUCKING NEWS I’VE BEEN WAITING FOR.”
“There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell, ambassador.”
– Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya to the Russian ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia.
Russia has launched the largest and most complex interstate conflict since the First Gulf War. The largest war in Europe and the developed world since World War II is now [world] news.
Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes are targeting cities, infrastructure, and airports throughout Ukraine. Amphibious assaults are taking place on the southern coast. Intense shelling has begun in the east in preparation for an offensive. Russian and Belarusian units are on the move in the north. By the end of the day, hundreds of innocent civilians will have bene killed, and potentially thousands of soldiers.
Every single action taken by Russia up to this point has been accurately predicted and quickly communicated by the U[nited] S[tates] and its intelligence services. If ever any person (like some orange c***) has ever questioned the efficacy and existence of NATO, this is why it exists.
Ukraine has declared martial law, but the odds of it holding off a full Russo-Belarusian invasion are slim.¹ Almost all of Ukraine’s major cities [close to the border] are reporting some kind of Russian military action. Russia claims to have suppressed Ukraine’s air defense systems, this seems probable as they were never terribly strong to begin with.² The Ukrainian government is reporting losses in the east, indicating a full offensive [has begun there].
Thousands of civilians in the capital, Kiev,³ are taking shelter, and Russia seems to be aiming to capture the city. Roads out of the city are completely backed up by refugees. The [Ukrainian] government has pledged to defend the city; expect its infrastructure and population to be devastated.
In Russia, many people are expressing disbelief and dismay at the war. Stocks across the world are down 2-3%, the Russian ruble is in the process of crashing, and oil has spiked in price.
Our first (extremely limited) casualty reports are beginning to roll in, [with] at least 7 dead. That number is obviously extremely low, but they are the first confirmed.
Later Commentary
Ukraine Updates
Russian forces continue to advance and the Ukrainians continue to resist. Ukrainian forces have temporarily repelled Russian assaults on the cities of Chernihiv and Kharkiv, no reliable word I can find on the eastern front. Conflicitng reports of amphibious landings at or near Odesa in the south,⁴ and [there is] plenty of evidence of large scale movement through Belarus and action by Belarusian troops.⁵ Lukashenko denies involvement of course but if anybody has learned any lesson in the last month I hope “don’t take dictators at face value” is one of them.
Ruski c***s (Rus****s, if you will) are advancing towards Mariupol, one of the most important cities in the southeast and the site of some of the most significant and tide-turning fighting during 2014. I would expect fighting there to be particularly fierce due to Mariupol’s strategic and symbolic importance, but given it’ll likely be surrounded from east and west, expect little chance of victory and large chance of mass civilian casualties.⁶
Ukraine is making an open call for [what is] essentially [a] levée en masse, saying that anyone capable of holding a rifle is capable of fighting for their country.
Heavy fighting taking place around the city of Kherson, with the Ukrainians repelling Russians but facing difficulties. Unconfirmed reports of at least 50 Russian soldiers killed in the east – again, take early numbers with a Russia-sized grain of salt.
Ukraine has cut diplomatic ties with Russia (obviously), [and] is handing out weapons to any Ukrainian willing to take them.
Russian tanks [are] possibly entering Kharkiv, at least 40 Ukrainian soldiers killed [in the war so far].
Russian units continue to move in on all sides, and all of Ukraine’s major cities continue to be struck [by air, missile, and artillery attacks]. Minimum of 100 – 200 deaths reported so far, [though the] actual number is guaranteed to be much higher.
World Updates
China [is] refusing to call Russia’s invasion an invasion and [is] saying that SANCTIONS are what is raising tensions. Thank you, I will be sure to listen to the words of a country actively committing genocide. I am sure they can be trusted.
The Moscow Stock Exchange is down 45%.
There’s a smattering of Russian allies who are either keeping pretty quiet or who have previously spoken up in support before the invasion. But most countries – and sane human beings – are pretty against the idea of nuclear armed countries conquering their neighbors.
NATO Updates
The Baltic countries have sounded the alarm and called for a meeting of NATO under Article 4, which is basically the “if I don’t feel safe we all get together and talk about it” clause. Lithuania is likely to pass a state of emergency act. Moldova [is] also pursuing a state of emergency, [though] the country is not a part of NATO, [it] borders Ukraine, and has grappled with a Russian-led war in its east since independence.
It is unlikely such action is being taken because [the Baltics] fear any sort of attack but because the Eastern Europeans have been fearful to the point of paranoid about the Russians invading [one of them] since independence and they’re trying to underscore just how very not cool with the situation they are.
The United States has repeatedly and resolutely committed to defending all NATO allies, expect additional deployment of thousands of US troops to Poland, Romania, and the Baltics in the coming months.
NATO has formally activated defense plans putting Western forces in the east on high alert and transferring more soldiers to Alliance borders.
General Notes:
1 – When the conflict began, I was a committed “doomer.” Like most observers, I assumed that Russia’s performance in Crimea and elsewhere was proof of its status as the “second army in the world,” and, as an American, saw the Russian Aerospace Forces’ numerical advantage as insurmountable. As it turns out, however, Russia’s vaunted forces suffered from vast weaknesses, and much of Ukraine’s strength was not well known or communicated.
2 – This initial claim was incorrect. Ukraine possessed a large number of Soviet-era air defense systems that have proved remarkably effective since the beginning of the war, denying the Russian Aerospace Forces the ability to conduct air operations safely. Instead, poor Ukrainian air defense abilities during this early stage of the conflict was due in large part to their having been dispersed across the country in the days immediately following the invasion.
3 – As someone with much exposure to Russian and little knowledge of the differences between it and Ukrainian beyond the letter “i”, I was initially unaware that there are different preferred spellings between the two languages for many cities. The use of “Kiev” is corrected at a later date, but for archival purposes all future mentions of “Kiev” will be replaced with the correct “Kyiv” without additional comment.
4 – One feature of the early war was the shadowy phantom of potential naval landings on Ukraine’s large southern coast by Russian marine and naval forces. Some landings did reportedly take place, but they were small in scale and played no significant role in the fighting.
5 – The reports of “action by Belarusian troops” referred purely to action in the sense of activity and movement, not offensive action. Nonetheless, it was unclear at the opening of the war whether or not Belarusian troops would join their Russian counterparts in moving south.
6 – Mariupol is a city with which I have long held a special connection and fascination, with the city’s defense being one of the first clear, specific contemporary wartime events I remember witnessing and cheering for. I am proud to say that my prediction here was spot on, though I cannot celebrate the resulting destruction and massacre of a city I hold dear.
