Articles and Reporting
Yet another excellent video from Australian military analyst Perun, this time regarding the employment and development of air defenses in Ukraine.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces (again) filmed themselves killing, beheading, and sticking the head of a Ukrainian POW on a pike in Belgorod Oblast following a failed attempt to cross the border. The summary execution and dismemberment of POWs is a heinous violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations.
Russian forces appear to light something on fire in one of the cooling towers of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar. The towers are not attached to the (currently offline) reactor itself and posed no threat. The move prompted confusion, and the reasoning behind it remains unclear.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, as well as repeated strikes on several airbases inside Russia.
International
Iran is reportedly preparing to deliver hundreds of short range ballistic missiles to Russia.
The United States is reportedly looking into supplying Ukraine with AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missiles, very comparable to the previously-supplied Anglo-French Storm Shadows. These weapons would fill a crucial gap in Ukraine’s armament, are under active production, and are available in large numbers.
Regional Military Updates
Sumy Front
🟥 Major action. Ukrainian forces captured Gordeevka, Uspenovka, Vnezapnoe, and Snagost, south of Korenevo. Ukrainian attacks towards Korenevo made gains. Ukrainian forces captured Olgovka, Kalinov, Skrylevka, and Varvarovka, east of Korenevo. Ukrainian forces captured Pogrebki, Orlovka, and Novaya Sorochina, north of Malaya Loknya. Ukrainian forces captured Mikhailovka, Mirnyi, Bondarevka, Kolmakov, Konopelka, and Fanaseekva, east of Sudzha. Ukrainian forces captured Borki and Spalnoe, southeast of Sudzha. Russian counterattacks west of Giri, southeast of Sudzha, made gains.
Assessment: Ukrainian gains reportedly now exceed 1,000 square kilometers, up from 400 last week. Note that this front is still fluid and Ukrainian gains are not yet firm; see the Weekly Conclusion.
Kharkiv Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northwest of Kharkiv. Russian attacks north of Kharkiv made marginal gains. Russian assaults in Vovchansk made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Luhansk Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian attacks southeast of Kupyansk made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Svatove. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Donetsk Front
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Russian attacks east of Siversk made marginal gains. Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Siversk made limited gains. Fighting reported around Chasiv Yar. Russian attacks south of Bakhmut made limited gains. Russian attacks around Toretsk made gains. Ukrainian counterassaults in Niu York made limited gains. Russian attacks east of Pokrovsk made gains. Russian forces captured Zhelanne, Serhiivka, and Orlivka, southeast of Pokrovsk. Fighting reported around Krasnohorivka. Fighting reported around Herohiivka. Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka, immediately west of Novomykhailivka, made gains. Russian attacks southwest of Novomykhailivka made limited gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Zaporizhzhia Front
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Vuhledar. Fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Huliaipole. Ukrainian counterattacks south of Orikhiv made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Kherson Front
🟩 Limited action. Limited fighting reported along the Dnieper River, especially around Krynky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Military Situation
Ukrainian forces continue to make significant gains. To the west, they are poised to take the regional city of Korenevo and possibly even the whole of Glushkovsky Raion, having dropped at least one of the three bridges crossing the Seym River. Lesser gains have been made to the north and east, though the latter were blunted by Russian counterattacks.
The situation in Donetsk Oblast, however, is worrying. Ukrainian units around Pokrovsk report heavy continuous assaults from Russian forces who may outnumber them 10:1. It is unclear what forces Ukraine has left to stem the tide there, and much rests on that battle.
Russian Response
The Kremlin’s response has thus far been muddled. Russian forces remain somewhat disorganized and do not appear to be operating under a clear, unified command, with multiple officials and agencies delegated various authorities. Despite some counterattacks, Russian forces remain on the defensive, and are building trench lines as far away from the current front as Lgov. Some Russian reinforcements have arrived, but not in substantial numbers.
Among civilians, the response has been muted, standing in marked contrast to the mass unrest and widespread resistance among Ukrainians during the Russian invasion. This is likely due in large part to the model conduct of Ukrainian forces.
Assessment
The next week of fighting will likely be decisive. If Ukrainian forces can retain the initiative, take Korenevo, and establish a defensive line along the Seym River to the border, they should be able to free up units to push north and/or east, prolonging the maneuver phase of the offensive and widening their gains. While the Russians may engage in aggressive counterattacks to prevent this, their capacity to do so appears limited. Like Ukraine, Russia appears to have depleted its reserves, and what few reinforcements have been sent are mostly comprised of lower quality troops.
Despite the worsening situation in Pokrovsk, Ukraine has secured at least one important advantage so far: morale. The situation in Kursk has been extremely embarrassing for Russia, resulting in recriminations and anger, while Ukrainian soldiers across the front have expressed their happiness and optimism at their finally being on the offensive somewhere.
One can only hope that optimism is warranted.
