Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russian forces intensified their use of Terror Bombing strikes against Ukrainian civilians, most especially in Kharkiv Oblast, including a double-tap strike on a resort that killed at least 11 civilians and wounded more than two dozen others. The intentional targeting of civilians, non-military civil infrastructure, and emergency personnel is a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
Ukrainian forces struck airbases and the port of Sevastopol in occupied Ukraine, likely destroying several aircraft and reportedly damaging another corvette.
Russia
Ukrainian forces continue to launch near-daily long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities.
Additionally, Ukrainian drones seriously damaged two Voronezh-DM over-the-horizon radar stations at the Armavir site in southern Russia, whose primary purpose is detecting the launch of nuclear missiles. Given the critical importance of such systems, it is unclear how drones were permitted to reach them.
Former Russian Major General Popov – a popular commander dismissed last year after fiercely criticizing the Kremlin’s careless attitude towards the lives of Russian soldiers – was arrested on charges of fraud. On his first day in court, Popov appeared to reiterate his criticism.
Several senior Ministry of Defense officials and commanders were also reportedly arrested and/or dismissed, joining a widening purge, while a Belousov ally (another economist) was appointed in one of their places, further indicating a shift in Russian war policy.
International
The first group of Ukrainian F-16 pilots have reportedly completed training in the United States. Aircraft are supposed to begin arriving sometime in the summer after months of delays.
A bipartisan group of members of Congress, foreign Allies, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, and (reportedly) Secretary of State Blinken have begun pushing the Biden Administration to change tact following apparent confirmation that they have been threatening to withhold aid from Ukraine if any Western-supplied weapons – not just American – are used to strike targets inside Russia.
European nations formally adopted a plan that would allow Ukraine to receive tens of billions in profits from frozen Russian governmental investments. Lithuania announced the provision of radars, anti-drone systems, and ammunition. Sweden announced an additional $7 billion in aid for Ukraine over the next three years. Denmark announced another $800 million aid package for Ukraine, including artillery shells, air defense munitions, and maintenance. Britain announced aid including air defense munitions, mine clearing equipment, and vehicles. Spain announced it would soon provide Ukraine with additional Leopard tanks. The United States announced another $275 million aid package for Ukraine, including bombs, artillery shells and rockets, anti-tank missiles.
Poland indicated it may be open to conducting interceptions on Ukraine’s behalf over the western end of the country, potentially allowing the redeployment of Ukrainian air defense assets to Kharkiv and elsewhere.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks south of Pylna made marginal gains. Russian assaults on Starytsa, west of Vovchansk, made gains. Russian assaults in northern Vovchansk made limited gains. Fighting reported northeast of Kupyansk. Russian assaults on Bersetove, northwest of Svatove, made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Stelmakhivka, northwest of Svatove, made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Makiivka, southwest of Svatove, made gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Ukrainian counterattacks around Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Russian attacks southeast of Siversk made marginal gains. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Heavy fighting reported east of Chasiv Yar. Russian assaults in Klishchiivka made gains. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian forces captured Umanske. Russian assaults on Netalyove, northwest of Pervomaiske, made gains. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made gains. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Marinka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made limited gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian assaults in Staromaiorske made marginal gains. Russian attacks southeast of Huliaipole made gains. Fighting reported southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported around Verbove. Russian forces captured Robotyne.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
There has once again been talk that Russian dictator Putin is interested in securing a “peace” deal for the war in Ukraine, in the form of a ceasefire that would freeze the current frontlines.
This is a lie.
The Kremlin is not interested in peace; at most, it is interested in a temporary pause that would allow Russia to preserve and secure its territorial gains and rebuild forces for an additional assault on Ukraine in the near-future, knowing that a cessation of hostilities would almost certainly result in the immediate halting of aid deliveries to Ukraine and a crippling of Ukrainian military capacity. In reality, the only purpose served by talk of a “ceasefire” is to divide the democratic nations and encourage those in the West who foolishly believe they can stick their heads in the sand and wish this war away.
Putin is a brutish and genocidal dictator who rejects the existence of a Ukrainian state and people, a thuggish and hostile foe who is set on an implacable course of confrontation with the West. He cannot be bought off, he cannot be negotiated with, he cannot be appeased. He and his ilk are intent on conquering and subjugating the whole of Ukraine, from east to west, leaving tens of millions who now live in freedom at the mercy of that violent autocrat – the first step in reestablishing that old and brutish world we like to tell ourselves is long past, where the strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must.
“I say, Theoden, King: shall we have peace and friendship, you and I? It is ours to command.”
“We will have peace. Yes, we will have peace. We will have peace, when you and all your works have perished – and the works of your dark master, to whom you would deliver us. You are a liar, Saruman, and a corrupter of men’s hearts. Even if your war on me was just – as it was not – even so, what will you say of your torches in the Westfold, and the children that lie dead there? And they hewed Hama’s body before the gates of the Hornburg, after he was dead. When you hang from a gibbet at your window, for the sport of your own crows, I will have peace with you and Orthanc.”
— Lord of the Rings, The Two Towers, p. 187 (Condensed)
