Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
Russia has begun expanding its use of glide bombs – large, unguided munitions incapable of precise targeting – against Ukrainian cities, repeatedly striking Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia at random. Cluster bombs were also reportedly used against Kupyansk, while drones and missiles targeted residential buildings in Kharkiv and elsewhere, reportedly including double-tap strikes. Russia has also destroyed or seriously damaged a substantial segment of Ukraine’s power and thermal plants in recent weeks as part of its ongoing second Terror Bombing campaign. The intentional targeting of non-military civil infrastructure, civilians, and emergency responders is a violation of the laws of war.
Russian forces are continuing to make use of tear gas grenades across much of the frontline. The use of chemical weapons, including irritants, is a violation of the laws of war.
Drones reportedly struck the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar. Given the incentive for Russian forces to falsify such attacks, it is unclear who was responsible. Attacks on nuclear power plants and other such facilities are a violation of the laws of war.
Overview
Ukraine
Russia continues to launch near-daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military installations; see War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, passed a conscription bill that was previously delayed, lowering the conscription age to 25 and removing a provision that would have allowed soldiers with long service records to be discharged.
President Zelenskyy joined in with others – including NATO military head General Cavoli – warning that Ukraine is at serious risk of losing the war if failures to deliver vitally needed aid and munitions continue. Zelenskyy also highlighted the critical lack of air defense systems and munitions, which have allowed Russia to expand attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians.
Russia
Russia – one of the world’s largest oil producers – was reportedly forced to begin importing gasoline from Kazakhstan following a spate of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
The Ukrainian GUR intelligence agency reportedly planted a bomb in a Russian Baltic Sea Fleet corvette, causing serious damage to the vessel.
International
Latvia became the latest nation to sign a long-term defense agreement with Ukraine, and promised to provide at least $120 million in aid for 2024.
The United States warned that China has likely ramped up its support of Russia in its war against Ukraine, providing Russia a lifeline of crucial components for making military hardware. In response, China indicated it would continue to expand its support of Russia.
Democrats in the House of Representatives indicated they would support Republican Speaker Johnson if far-right members of his caucus attempt to oust him should he bring a long-delayed Ukraine aid bill to the floor. The United States’s failure to provide necessary aid has hampered Ukraine’s war effort and cost the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian attacks southeast of Kupyansk repelled. Fighting reported west of Svatove. Russian attacks towards Terny made limited gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Russian attacks south of Bilohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported east of Siversk. Fighting reported near Spirne. Fighting reported north of Soledar. Russian attacks towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, made gains; see the Weekly Conclusion. Fighting reported south of Bakhmut. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Fighting reported east of Novokalynove. Russian attacks northwest of Avdiivka made gains. Russian forces likely captured Pervomaiske. Russian attacks west of Pervomaiske made limited gains. Fighting reported south of Pervomaiske. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian assaults in Krasnohorivka made limited gains. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported southeast of Vuhledar. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported southeast of Mala Tokmachka. Fighting reported northwest of Verbove. Russian attacks on western Robotyne made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Russian assaults in Krynky made marginal gains.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
With the Battle of Avdiivka concluded and the frontlines there relatively stabilized, eyes have begun turning towards the small city located just west of Bakhmut that appears to be Russia’s next main target: Chasiv Yar.
Despite its stature, Chasiv Yar possesses an outsized importance, one that is very militarily relevant. Sitting atop a large ridgeline that runs through a substantial chunk of northern Donetsk Oblast, the small city commands the local heights, blocking further Russian advance to the west.
This is vital. Seizing Chasiv Yar would give the Russians an elevation advantage while removing from Ukraine’s hands an immensely valuable defensive asset. It could allow them to make gains further north, reducing Siversk and its environs to a (likely doomed) salient and placing the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in immediate danger. The holding of these cities is non-negotiable: they are the lynchpin of Ukrainian forces in Donetsk Oblast whose fall would likely undermine the whole of the Northern and Eastern Theatres. Failure to defend them would be a genuine disaster.
Chasiv Yar’s fall would not make their capture inevitable. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are large, well-supplied, well-defended, difficult to cut off, and protected by the ridgeline’s western protrusions. Taking them would not be easy, but having to defend them is not in Ukraine’s interest: over a quarter of a million Ukrainian citizens live in the region, making any battle for them economically destructive. Far better that the Russians are stopped short and contained on or to the east of the ridge.
To prevent Chasiv Yar from becoming another Avdiivka, Western nations – most especially the United States – must move urgently to supply long-promised and badly-needed supplies. Aircraft, vehicles, shells, and air defense systems are vital for blunting any Russian advance and opening the way for counterattacks. One city has already fallen due to our failure to act, thousands of lives lost in its defense. To permit the fall of another would be shameful and unconscionable.
