Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Ukraine
Russian forces launched large, daily drone and missile attacks targeting civil infrastructure in several Ukrainian cities, the largest such attack of the war. Millions were left without power, heat, and running water. The attacks were most intense around Kharkiv City, with some suggesting that intensified Russian attacks there could presage renewed military operations towards the city. Ukraine again called for the provision of more air defense systems to safeguard its cities and civilians.
Russia
Ukraine launched another drone attack on Russian oil and gas facilities, striking at least one refinery in Samara Oblast. Russia has reportedly begun importing substantial sums of gasoline from Belarus, up from zero imports as recently as January.
In addition, Ukraine launched more attacks on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, destroying a Black Sea Fleet communications center and likely damaging a reconnaissance ship, while possibly damaging three landing ships (though this last claim is very uncertain).
Russia appears to be preparing to re-expand the use of penal battalions, offering convicts pardons if they serve on the frontlines.
International
At least one Russian cruise missile violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukrainian civil infrastructure. The Russian ambassador to Poland refused a request he present himself to the Polish Foreign Ministry, a major breach of protocol even in times of peace.
Finland and Canada announced their support for a Czech effort to buy shells for Ukraine on the international market, which has already succeeded in sourcing at least 300,000 shells, with the first deliveries set to begin sometime before June. Several Western nations announced additional aid packages for Ukraine. Lithuania committed to providing anti-drone systems. The Netherlands promised at least $160 million to equip F-16 aircraft. Britain (through the International Monetary Fund) announced $75 million for the purchase of drones and air defenses.
United States Speaker of the House Johnson has reportedly personally vowed to pass the long-stalled aid bill for Ukraine after Easter amidst growing efforts by Democrats and moderate Republicans to sideline him and the normal legislative process. Passage of the bill has been pointlessly delayed for over six months, leading to the needless deaths of untold numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.
Regional Military Updates
Northern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Ukrainian counterattacks around Synkivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported southeast of Kupyansk. Fighting reported northwest of Svatove. Russian attacks towards Terny, west of Kreminna, made gains. Fighting reported southwest of Kreminna.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Eastern Theatre
🟧 Significant action. Fighting reported around Bilohorivka. Fighting reported near Spirne. Fighting reported near Vesele. Russian forces likely captured Bohdanivka, northwest of Bakhmut. Russian forces likely captured Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut. Fighting reported around Chasiv Yar, west of Ivanivske. Russian attacks north of Klishchiivka made gains. Fighting reported around Andriivka. Fighting reported west of Horlivka. Russian attacks west of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks north of Krasnohorivka made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Marinka. Russian attacks around Novomykhailivka made gains. Russian assaults in Novomykhailivka made gains.
Assessment: Russian forces have resumed making slow but steady (though reportedly very costly) gains across much of this theatre.
Southern Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported southeast of Velyka Novosilka. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka made marginal gains. Fighting reported southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting reported around Mala Tokmachka. Russian attacks west of Verbove made marginal gains. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Assessment: Russian efforts to close the Robotyne Salient have again stalled.
Dnieper Theatre
🟩 Limited action. Fighting reported around Krynky.
Assessment: No change from previous assessment.
Weekly Conclusion
Russian forces have now lost more than 15,000 vehicles during the invasion of Ukraine. This includes:
- 5,390 AFVs, IFVs, APCs, etc.
- 3,468 Trucks, MRAPs, etc.
- 2,873 Tanks
- 1,428 Artillery Pieces/Vehicles
- 983 Support Vehicles
- 351 Large UAVs
- 292 Anti-Aircraft Systems
- 135 Helicopters
- 107 Aircraft
- 22 Naval Craft
- 1 Cruiser/Flagship
- 1 Submarine
- 1 Corvette
- 7 Landing Ships
- 12 Other Craft
These losses are staggering, and have led to a rapid depletion of Russia’s treasured Soviet military stockpiles. Satellite imagery and work done by a variety of open source figures has indicated severe damage to Russia’s most valuable vehicle reserves, with some of the most in-demand items already effectively eliminated, and an increasing reliance on older, less reliable, and less capable equipment.
Worse still, it is extremely likely that even the visible stockpiles will run dry long before it appears they should at first glance. Stored in humid conditions, barely and badly maintained, and often preyed upon by corrupt soldiers and officials during the lean times of the 1990s, many of the thousands of remaining vehicles visible from space are utterly non-functional, useful only for supplying spare parts, if that. And that is not to mention the truly ancient stock, some so old and outclassed as to be effectively useless on the modern battlefield, others completely lacking the spare parts or munitions to make them move and shoot.
While most analysts agree that Russia can likely continue to supply its armies at the current rate of loss for somewhere between one and three years (most tending towards the lower end), this will come at enormous cost. The Soviet inheritance – always a limited and fading resource – will be permanently spent, while the billions of dollars spent modernizing Russia’s arsenal in the two decades prior to 2022 will have been largely wasted, as most of the best vehicles (and the trained men that used them) have been destroyed. In their place will be a fleet of older, outdated weapons, still deadly, but far beneath the long-vaunted Putinist military “machine.”
