Day 660
Articles and Reporting
An excellent (though overly gloomy) article from The Guardian, whose reporters traveled to the fortress-city of Avdiivka amidst heavy continuous Russian assaults that threaten to envelop and capture the bastion and the salient it projects.
“‘We will stand until the end’: Ukrainian defenders of Avdiivka hold on – for now,” retrieved from The Guardian.
We will stand until the end. If the West won’t support us, Moscow will try to seize Kyiv again, like in 2022. And then it will keep going.
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
Russia launched another small drone and missile wave, most or all of which were downed.
Japan announced the expansion of sanctions on Russia and sanctions-evading regimes, in an effort to further its support of Ukraine.
Germany announced another aid package for Ukraine, including generators, mine clearing equipment, anti-drone systems, artillery shells, grenades, and another Patriot air defense system with interceptors.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are two days old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian assaults on Synkivka, northeast of Kupyansk, made limited gains. Russian attacks around Synkivka likely made gains. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk repelled.
Bakhmut Front
Significant action. Russian attacks north of Soledar possibly made marginal gains. Russian attacks towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka possibly made gains. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut possibly made gains. Russian attacks around Klishchiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Andriivka possibly made gains.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Russian attacks southeast of Novokalynove repelled. Russian attacks northwest of Stepove made limited gains. Russian attacks around Avdiivka possibly repelled. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske made limited gains. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
Today’s Daily Conclusion is a brief excerpt from an article from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba published by Foreign Affairs, specifically the section relevant to ongoing negotiations in the United States Congress regarding the extension of Ukraine aid funding. The full article can be read here.
“Skeptics also argue that supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom is too expensive and cannot be sustained indefinitely. We in Ukraine are fully aware of the amounts of assistance that we have received… we are immensely grateful [for it]… [But t]his support is not, and never has been, charity. Every dollar invested in Ukraine’s defense returns clear security dividends for its supporters… Ukraine has done all this with American assistance totaling roughly three percent of the annual U.S. defense budget. What is more, most of this money has in fact been spent in the United States, funding the U.S. defense industry, supporting the development of cutting-edge technology, and creating American jobs…”
“The United States has spent decades, and hundreds of billions of dollars, building and protecting an international order that could sustain and protect democracy and market economies, thus ensuring security and prosperity for Americans. It would be foolish to give up on that investment now. If democracy is allowed to fall in Ukraine, adversaries of the United States will perceive weakness and understand that aggression pays. The price tag for defending U.S. national security against such threats would be many times higher than the one for supporting Ukraine and could spark decades of global turbulence with an uncertain outcome.”
“Scholars and analysts often warn of a World War III involving nuclear conflict between great powers. But they may overlook the risk of a world of smaller hot wars between states, with bigger powers feeling empowered to take advantage of their smaller neighbors—World Wars I, plural, rather than World War III. Without a common commitment to Ukrainian victory, Russian aggression could in hindsight mark the onset of such a world.”
