Day 658

Ten drones and ten missiles were downed in another attempted Terror Bombing strike on Kyiv, with dozens of injuries and damage reported from falling debris. Thus far, the slow pace and limited scale of strikes suggests that Russian efforts to ramp up missile production and increase stockpiles in the pre-winter months has proven unsuccessful at restoring depth to its precision munition stocks, likely indicating that the second Terror Bombing campaign will be less impactful than the first (which was itself mitigated by the delivery of Western air defenses and generous donations of generators and other supplies).

Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen indicated that her country would seek to deliver another $1.1 billion aid package to Ukraine within the week, another enormous pledge from a small country.

In his ongoing visit to the United States, Presidents Zelenskyy and Biden reiterated the necessity of continued American support for Ukraine and the need to avoid giving Russia the appearance of a win on declining aid, as efforts to negotiate the passage of a more than $60 billion Congressional aid deal continue.

According to an official, a declassified American intelligence report indicated that Russia has sustained at least 315,000 casualties in Ukraine (90% of Russia’s invasion strength), below some previous estimates. Assuming a 1:3 KIA:WIA ratio for Russian forces, this indicates roughly 80,000 killed and 240,000 wounded over the course of the war. It is unclear when this estimate was dated to, and whether it includes prisoners and missing, so for present it will be treated as a conservative baseline.