Day 652
Relevant Statistics
All vehicle losses are visually confirmed only and thus represent the lowest possibly figure (sourced from Oryx, here and here); they are updated to the nearest 25 daily. All personnel losses are estimates or projections and should be viewed as such; they are updated as new information becomes available.
Russia
Ukraine
War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity
Russian forces in Ukraine have committed and continue to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied regions of Ukraine, in violation of international law and basic human decency. Russian crimes in Ukraine constitute genocide and ethnic cleansing, with Russia’s stated war aims including the elimination of Ukrainians as a separate country, language, culture, and people.
No especially notable atrocities reported today.
Overview
President Biden’s request for Ukraine and Israel aid stalled in Congress again after Republicans in the Senate demanded additional border security measures in return for supporting the bill. The White House is reportedly discussing the terms of a compromise to get the bill passed.
The United States and Ukraine signed an agreement that will permit Ukraine to domestically manufacture Western munitions and weapons systems, helping to ensure both some measure of Ukrainian self-sufficiency and boost the current and post-war Ukrainian economy.
After months of pressure and negotiations, South Korea reportedly delivered more artillery shells to Ukraine in the span of a few months in 2023 than the whole of Europe since the war began, making it the second-largest supplier of shells to Ukraine (behind only the United States). Despite the urgency of the war, European shell output remains lackluster at best.
Regional Military Updates
Note: MilitaryLand maps are one day old.
Northern Theatre
Svatove Front
Limited action. Russian attacks northeast of Kupyansk repelled. Russian attacks east of Kupyansk possibly made gains. Fighting reported west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut Front
Limited action. Russian attacks around Vesele possibly made gains. Russian attacks northwest of Bakhmut repelled. Russian attacks southwest of Bakhmut repelled. Fighting reported around Klishchiivka. Russian attacks around Andriivka repelled.
Southern Theatre
Donetsk Front
Significant action. The Russian Avdiivka Offensive is ongoing. Russian attacks southeast of Novokalynove repelled. Russian attacks east of Stepove made marginal gains. Russian attacks around the Avdiivka Coke Plant likely repelled. Russian assaults southeast of Avdiivka made marginal gains. Russian attacks around Sieverne repelled. Russian attacks around Pervomaiske repelled. Russian attacks around Krasnohorivka repelled. Russian attacks around Marinka repelled. Russian attacks near Novomykhailivka repelled.
Velyka Novosilka Front
Limited action. Russian attacks southeast of Velyka Novosilka repelled. Russian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka likely repelled.
Zaporizhzhia Front
Limited action. Fighting reported around Verbove. Fighting reported around Robotyne.
Kherson Front [Provisional]
Skirmishing continues to be reported along much of the left bank of the Dnieper River, most especially in and around Krynky.
Daily Conclusion
Note: Today’s Daily Conclusion is an excerpt from the Institute for the Study of War’s daily report. The full update can be read here.
“Russian forces may be suffering losses along the entire front in Ukraine at a rate close to the rate at which Russia is currently generating new forces… Ukrainian figures for Russian casualties along the front suggest that Russian monthly casualties could exceed the 20,000 monthly recruitment figure and may be even close to [40,000 per month].”
“Russian operations in Ukraine recently prompted the Russian military command to rush newly created and understrength formations to Ukraine to reinforce sectors of the front, impeding longer-term efforts to form operational and strategic reserves and restructure the Russian ground forces… High Russian casualties will likely prevent Russian forces from fully replenishing and reconstituting existing units in Ukraine and forming new operational and strategic reserves if Russian force generation efforts continue at current rates while the Russian military continues operations.”
“Both recruiting and casualty figures likely fluctuate over the course of the year, and all available figures are likely exaggerated. The reported numbers match observed battlefield conditions, however, as well as other Ukrainian reports that the Russian military has only been able to sustain its current manning level in Ukraine despite its reportedly high numbers of new recruits.”
“Russia does appear able to continue absorbing such losses and making them good with new recruits, however, as long as President Vladimir Putin is willing and able to absorb the domestic consequences.”
